Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Another day another gain as the Dow climbed 338 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. I was stopped out of the SPY April puts that I bought at the close yesterday for a 40% loss. That's two losses in two days as my thesis about the market was wrong. I was expecting the rally to stop at previous resistance points and it has proven that it won't. We may even be headed for new all time highs soon at this rate. Overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ was again the leader to the upside as the bulls are clearly in charge. It appears that we missed a good entry point for long term money a couple of weeks ago. We should have just taken our cues from the summation index as it pointed the way down and now the way up. I'm heading back to the sidelines with respect to the SPY for now. Gold fell another $20 on the futures but came up from the lows of the session.. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares had a huge gap down at the open and made it all the way back and then some. Any selling in the gold shares is being met with buyers. It was a mistake to not keep a closer eye on things here while attempting the SPY trades. Today looks like it was the ideal entry point for the GDX calls but my mind was focussed elsewhere. Even though one of the current ideas was to get the GDX calls ahead of Thursdays inflation data. It's probably best to take a step back here for a moment. Mentally the losses don't bother me too much but it may be time for a reassessment of trading tactics. The last couple of trade set ups had losses right after losses and that is a recipe for disastor. The VIX is now claerly below 20 and remaining short term oversold. Overdue for some kind of bounce up here with some volatility but I've already had my attempts and they were met with failure. We are now on a line of support for the VIX that started in November. A break here will further support the bulls. The market seems like it just wants to go higher as the technical indicators remain overbought. Europe and Asia were up as money finds a home in stocks around the globe. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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