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Friday, March 11, 2022

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 229 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still stuck in a sideways range in negative territory. We started with a gap higher and then drifted down for the rest of the session with a sharper decline in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way lower again and that's a negative. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are not yet oversold and have room to move lower. With the Fed on tap along with option expiration, next week should be interesting to say the least. There will be opportunities and I'll be looking for them this weekend. I'm not sure which way things will go. We're still at the mercy of headline risk. Gold fell a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates held steady. Gold did come off of the worst levels of the session. The XAU dropped almost 2 and GDX was off around 2/3. Volume was average. We're still short term overbought for the gold shares but not at extremes. I may try the GDX March calls again next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was bit higher today and that at least fits with the decline. The short term indicators here are mid-range indicating things could go one way or the other for the market. Plenty to ponder the next couple of days while checking the charts. The one thing that remains constant is the volatility. Option premiums are still sky high but next week the time premium will be getting taken out as we move towards Friday. Trading will have to remain nimble and quick as that is what the game calls for now. Hopefully we'll be up to the challenge. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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