I suppose it was only fitting to close out 2022 on a down note as the Dow fell 73 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to congest. A last hour rally saved the day from being worse as the Dow was down over 350 at one point. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold on most of its indicators. To me is appears that we have put in a base here on the S&P and I am looking for higher prices to begin the new year. We are seeing extreme readings in our call/put ratio which usually leads to some kind of rally. Also the fact that the NASDAQ hasn't broken down here after hitting a new yearly low is a plus. I did consider getting some SPY January calls today but did not. The light volume this week still makes any moves suspect. But I do think we move up from here. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. The gold shares have been underperforming the metal itself lately. But just like the overall stcok market it is hard to put much credibility in the moves this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly and I still don't know what to make of the action here. The Bollinger bands here are slowly starting to converge so we'll be seeing something meaningful here soon. I just don't know which way it's going to go. Today puts a close to the 2022 trading year. My win percentage was pretty low. However a couple of late huge winning trades turned it into a profitable year. We will try and build on that momentum heading into 2023. Asia was generally higher and Europe down to close out the week. It's another holiday weekend so we'll have an extra day to check the charts and prepare for the start of trading in 2023. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Happy New Year everyone.

Buyers returned today as the Dow climbed 345 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We got quite a bullish reading on the daily call/put ratio yesterday and todays price action verifies that. Another rally out of nowhere but this one might have legs. The daily S&P 500 chart may have put in a sideways bottom. It remains short term oversold but the daily indicators are starting to point up. Another positive session tomorrow would help the bullish cause. The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P currently has two bullish hammers. The light volume makes everything suspect though and we'll have to see if we get some upside follow through to close out the year on Friday. But at least the NASDAQ led things higher here today. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on extremely light volume. The short term technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range. We will wait for next year to attempt any trades here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains above the 20 level. Not getting any signals from here at the moment. At this point we are just waiting for tomorrow to end before another holiday weekend. We did get a lot of price movement so far this week but the volume or lack of it makes us question what is really going on here. I'd expect some kind of beginning of the year rally when all the players return next week but that's just a guess for now. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll say goodbye to the 2022 trading year tomorrow.

Sellers had the upper hand today as the Dow dropped 365 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It's heading towards the zero line again and we all know what happens if it makes it through there. We will see new lows for the decline in the S&P if the zero line doesn't hold. Short term oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ led the way lower and closed at a new low for the year. The light volume isn't helping this week as it tends to skew things one way or the other. For now the bears are back in control. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were flat. The XAU lost 3 3/4, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was very light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to turn lower and the Bollinger bands have contracted which implies a big move is coming. After todays price action it looks like it could be to the downside. I still like the calls here but we're in a wait and see mode at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits the market decline. Not sure where this indicator is headed next. The bulls will have to step up here soon or this could get ugly pretty fast. With such a lack of participation it's easy to get things going one way or the other. Not sure how to interpret whether this decline is for real or not but you have to respect price. Perhaps we'll have a better idea of what's going on after tomorrow. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll keep an eye on tonights trading.

A mixed bag to begin the holiday shortened week as the Dow gained 37 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading lower. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way down. It will most likely be a thinly traded week so I don't know how much meaning we can give to the price movement. Most major players won't be back at their desks until the new year. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower, while interest rates jumped. The XAU was up 3 points and GDX gained around 3/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing up and it's not yet overbought. However the 30 level is proving to be stiff resistance for now. A break above there with good volume will lead to higher prices for GDX. I'm still looking at the January calls there but would prefer to buy them at oversold levels. However if GDX does get through 30 I may just jump on board. There's also the option of going out to the February option cycle as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits the overall market drop. It is more short term oversold than overbought. However I'm not getting a good idea of what to expect next here. Still above 20 on the VIX. We'll probably remain on the sidelines until next year at this rate. Europe and Asia had gains overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Some back and forth today in pre-holiday trading as the Dow gained 176 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. The economic data out today came in about where expected. The NASDAQ underperformed and the S&P 500 remains short term oversold. A relatively quiet session and that was to be expected. Gold added $9 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range. We are still considering the GDX January calls for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the positive day for stocks. Not sure what the VIX has in store for us next. Looking ahead to next week, the markets will be closed on Monday. Again players will be on holiday vacation so the volume should be light. Asia was lower and Europe flat to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. Merry Christmas everyone.

It was quite a session and anyting but quiet today. The Dow fell 348 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It could have been worse as the market was off 800 points about halfway through the day and then made a dramatic comeback. Not sure what it all means as we were on the brink of a huge collapse. Some short covering to be sure but perhaps the sellers just dried up. The smaller stock indices were on their way to testing the October lows when they abruptly turned around. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and that's what occurs during down trends. Not sure where we go from here as things still could go either way after todays price action. We'll have to wait and see how the weeks ends tomorrow. Gold dropped $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses after being lower earlier in the session. The gold shares followed the market back up even though gold itself didn't. Volume was about average. The gold shares outperformed the metal once again and that's a plus if you're bullish. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with a decline in stocks. The VIX was much higher during the day and almost made it up to the 50 day moving average. But it fell back and lost much of its gain. Not sure what this means either but the VIX is still above the 20 level. Perhaps we are setting up for the Santa Claus rally, which involves the last 5 trading days of December coupled with the first 2 trading days of January. We'll see. For now we'll be on the sidelines until after Christmas. Asia up and Europe down overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We got the bounce we were looking for today as the Dow gained 526 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. One of the hallmarks of a bear market is a rally that springs up out of nowhere. Todays fits that. But it is where we go from here that will determine the markets fate. If we continue higher into the end of the week, the bear case will lose steam. However if things turn back down from here going into the close on Friday, the bear lives. I'm not sure which way it goes but the S&P 500 is still short term oversold. One of the negatives lately has been the light volume but we are in the holiday season with many away from their desks. For now we will wait and see how it goes before attempting the next trade. Gold was flat on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were steady. The gold shares followed the market higher. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was average. Sitting tight for now with the regards to the GDX January call idea. Will try and wait for GDX to get short term oversold again. Plenty of time left in the January option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped again and closed at the 20 level. The short term indicators here are heading lower and imply more gains for stocks in the near term. Not yet short term oversold. The VIX seems to be saying that there is nothing for the bulls to worry about as the 50 day moving average capped the recent rise here. If the VIX can get and stay below 20 it gives more credibility to the bullish case. Hasn't happened yet but we'll know more by the end of the week. For now we'll remain patient and let the market lead the way up or down. Not always the way we'd like it to be but there is not a clear signal to trade off of in my view at the moment. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Another day of indecision as the Dow bounced around for much of the session. The most watched index gained 92 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving down. The Dow was the outperformer today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and I'm still waiting for some kind of bounce this week. However as long as the summation index is moving lower, the path of least resistance is down. Many participants are already gone for the holidays so things can get skewed one way or the other. We'll probably wait until next year for the next SPY trade unless we really see a good signal. Gold took off to the upside today as the futures gained thirty bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU jumped 5 points, while GDX was up over a buck. Volume was average. I did place an overnight order for the GDX January calls but it wasn't filled. The Japanese yen climbed overnight and the price of gold sometimes follows the path of the yen. It did today. GDX was short term oversold yesterday but has moved away from there fast. Buying has come into the gold shares for the past month and a half. It looks like we missed this chance to buy the GDX calls again but we'll see. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated as we seem to have missed the trade we were waiting for. Not sure why the market is having such an appetite for gold but that's what it looks like. The Bollinger bands on the GDX daily chart are starting to contract which implies a big move coming there. Seems like it will be to the upside based on the recent price action. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators are still mid-range. So the VIX could go either way from here. Not getting a good idea of what it will do here but it does remain above the 20 level. Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade. I'll be looking for some kind of bounce tomorrow.

More selling to start the week but a last hour bump up kept it from being worse. The Dow fell 162 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. We should see a bounce in the next day or so. Not sure if it will be more than just that. There is a lot of bearishness around though. The smaller stock indexes look like they're going to test their October lows. If that occurs it won't bode well for the overall market. Oversold and remaining there would be trouble going forward. We'll have to see how it plays out. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat and interest rates rose. The XAU was off almost 2 points, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. GDX is almost short term overbought and I'm thinking about putting in an overnight order for the January calls there. However if the overall market continues to sink, GDX will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with a down market. Again this indicator isn't acting in the usual fashion. Not sure what to make of it. The short term indicators remain at mid-range. Still could go either way here. The weekly indicators for the major averages still have plenty of room to move lower. That's why it's possible that things could get dicey here. Add in the summation index heading lower and you see the situation that we're in. Unless we see some kind of turnaround soon the markets will be heading lower going into the end of the year. If we continue to move closer to the zero line and through it on the summation index, the previous lows for the major indexes won't hold. That is what we are facing at the moment. Europe was up and Asia generally down to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Some follow through selling today as the Dow fell 281 on extremely heavy triple witch expiration volume. The advance/declines were a little better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The S&P closed right about at the 50 day moving average and is short term oversold. So we could see a bounce early next week. Or not. You can somewhat make a case for a small head and shoulders top for the S&P 500 on the daily candlestick chart. If valid the measuring objective would be around 3700. Most of the major averages are short term oversold but in down trends they tend to stay that way. The technical indicators for the weekly charts have plenty of room to move lower. So unless we see a quick turnaround we are in the next leg down for the bear market. We'll take our cues from the summation index and it's heading lower. Gold found buyers once again as the futures were up $15. The US dollar was slightly higher and rates were mixed again. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on lighter than lately volume. Yes, we still like the GDX January call idea as gold seems to catch a bid with any decline lately. However at the rate it has been going we won't be seeing GDX reach short term oversold anytime soon. Perhaps that will change next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped with a down market, once again not the normal order of things. The indicators here remain mid-range. Not sure what to expect with the VIX next. The bears have come out of hibernation before Christmas. Will that mean no Santa Claus rally this year? Time will tell on that. Only two weeks left for the 2022 trading year. Normally I'd expect things to slow down with the holidays upon us but this market doesn't seem in the mood as yet. An extra week for the January option cycle so the premiums are higher than usual. We'll be checking the charts this weekend to try and come up with some new ideas. Asia and Europe were lower as it's a worldwide exit from stocks. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market has spoken. Stocks got clobbered today. The Dow fell 764 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving back down. Equities had made it back to the longer term down trend line on the S&P 500 only to be repelled. The bears took control where they had to. My idea of breaking through that line and on to higher prices has been proven wrong. It appears that lower prices are in the near future for stocks. When the market speaks we have to listen even if it's not what we want to hear. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back down. Not completely oversold yet so there is room to move lower. The tight Bollinger bands prediction of a big move is to the downside. The positive expiration week bias is not happening this time around. I guess the first downside target would be the 50 day moving average at 3860. Gold slumped as well with the futures off over $30. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU lost 5 1/8, while GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down. Now it is just a matter of GDX getting to short term oversold, which is what we've been waiting for. I'm not sure how long that will take and even if it is the right idea anymore. At this point we'll let option expiration pass tomorrow and go from there. If the US dollar starts to rally from here it would be a major headwind for gold. The dollar has been oversold for quite a while and is now coming off of that condition. It's something to keep an eye on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits the market decline. The short term indicators here are mid-range which would mean we could still have plenty of downside to go if the VIX continues to rise. At this point I'm not sure what to think when it comes to the VIX. It hasn't been acting in the usual fashion. It has been quite a trading week already but we still have one day left. The rally has ended and we'll have to see how low we go. Europe and Asia were down as well. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.

We now have the Fed out of the way after another back and forth session. The Dow fell 142 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. The Fed rose rates as expected and after that the market lost its gains for the day. It wasn't a complete collapse like we've seen before this year. The S&P 500 is still below the longer term down trend line but I'm still in the camp that we get through that line soon. Maybe not by expiration Friday but before the end of the month. That's my best guess at the moment. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. The Bollinger bands here are still getting tight so we are going to see something big soon. Gold was off 5 bucks on the futures but came back up from the lows of the day. The US dollar dropped and interest rates were steady. That is not what you would expect with the Fed raising rates. Markets do what they want. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares also came back from the lows of the session. We're still waiting for GDX to get short term oversold but at this rate it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Trying to stay patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower with a down market and that doesn't fit. The short term indicators have rolled over though. I can't figure out what the VIX is doing this week. A lower VIX normally means higher stock prices. We'll see what happens in the next two days. For now it looks like the next trade will take us into the new year. Waiting on a decent set up. Sometimes it's hard to remain on the sidelines but also at times it's necessary. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Inflation data came in waeker than expected and the market opened with a huge gap to the upside. The Dow was up 700 points in the first half hour and then proceded to give most of it back. The most watched index still managed a gain of 103 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. It was a volatile and crazy session. The bears are at their last line of defense as it looked like we were going to break the long term down trend line on the S&P 500. Once again the 4100 level proved to be a barrier as prices were repelled from that level. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned up though and if the Fed comes in dovish perhaps we'll get through the resistance. Taking out that trendline on good volume would lead to more gains and put an end to the longer term decline in my view. Hasn't happened yet but that's what we've been leaning towards. Gold rallied on the inflation news as the futures were up $30. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up almost 3 points, while GDX rose 7/8. Volume was good to the upside. GDX remains short term overbought so we are waiting to purchase the January calls there. But the interest in owning the gold shares now isn't slowing down as the market has stayed overbought since the beginning of November. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had quite a range today and was lower which fits the up move in stocks. The short term indicators have rolled over which implies more price gains to come. But anything can happen here which is why we'll be keeping a close eye on tomorrows developments. A hawkish Fed speech could bring things right back down again. Todays price action could have left no doubt that we're heading higher in the near term. But the selling took over at resistance which is why we'll be cautious for now. Wednesday will be an important session for prices going forward. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market was trending slightly higher for much of the day and then took off to the upside in the final hour and a half. The Dow gained 528 points on light volume. The advance/declines were just about 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is starting to congest. A big move before tomorrows consumer prices is a surprise but the market always knows more than we do. Short covering in there to be sure but some positive price movement was to be expected. Will it carry us past the long term down trend line in the S&P 500? The short term indicators there have begun to turn up. Is the positive expiration week bias in effect? Plenty of questions as usual in this game. The Dow led the way higher today. It's too late to try the SPY December calls for me. I did put in an overnight order for some but it wasn't filled and the premiums were very high with only a week to go anyway. After tomorrows data we've got the Fed on Wednesday. So the jury is still out on where we go this week but it is a promising start for the bulls. Gold was off almost $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. The gold shares did come off of their lows for the session, following the overall market higher. Once again the gold shares outperformed the metal itself and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the gold shares are still in overbought territory. We will wait for the Fed to get out of the way before attempting to purchase the GDX January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and that makes absolutely no sense with a market up over 500 points. Short term overbought now for the VIX which would imply that it will turn around and we'll see a rally in the market. If that does occur we will probably see quite a move up for stocks. That would take out the down trend line for the S&P and we could declare with some confidence that the bear market is over. If the VIX stays overbought we should see a decline. So it will be an interesting week to say the least. Asia and Europe were down to begin the trading week. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow.

Quite a lackluster session until the final hour when stocks tanked. The Dow fell 305 points on the lately lighter volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. Producer prices came in where expected and the market bounced around but not dramatically. However in the final hour, sellers showed up to close the day with a loss. The Dow was the leader going lower so it wasn't exactly a broad based sell off. It does put my thesis of higher prices to break through the 4100 level on the S&P by expiration next Friday into jeopardy. In fact it probably entirely shoots it down. We are short term oversold for the S&P 500 but a rally is not materializing. This was how the market acted during the past negative year. We haven't taken out the down trend line in the S&P that began in January. It appears my take on things is wrong and I will have to listen to what the market says. The lack of volume lately should be another clue. I'm now not considering the SPY December calls but will have to go over things this weekend. Gold was up $5 on the futures but was higher early on. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates rose. The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was average. The gold shares gave up all of their gains for the session and then some. I'm still considering the GDX January calls but on the sidelines for now. Mentally I'm a bit confused as the market is not acting the way that I thought it would. Pretty much I'm just wrong as the market is always right. The VIX was up a bit today. The short term technical indicators are getting more overbought but they aren't all the way there yet. I thought that the indicators would roll over here but they haven't. The VIX seems to be saying that there will be more selling near term. Option expiration week is upon us and it usually has a positive bias. Obviously that's not a 100% indicator. I'm not sure what to make of the current price action but like they say, when in doubt stay out. Plenty of work to do over the weekend to try and figure where we go from here. We'll be checking all the charts as usual. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Buyers had the upper hand today as the Dow added 183 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is slowly moving down. We were up from the start today but it wasn't a blockbuster session. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next 2 days. Todays price action wasn't that much but it could qualify so we'll see what happens tomorrow. Perhaps the inflation data will be a catalyst. The S&P 500 is short term oversold on some of the indicators. The Bollinger bands are also beginning to contract which implies that a big move is coming. As usual which way is the question. I still think that we're going to move higher and surpass the longer term down trend line on the S&P before option expiration. I did place an overnight order for the SPY December calls but it wasn't filled. Six days left in the December option cycle. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU along with GDX finished little changed on light volume. Still short term overbought on GDX as we try and remain patient before trading there. A weaker producer price number could get the gold shares moving higher again but we will try and stay on the sidelines here until GDX gets oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is stopping mid-range in the Bollinger bands. If the market rallies tomorrow, the VIX will turn down and the short term indicators will roll over. That is what I'm looking for. I do think that the market will be moving up here and into the option expiration. It would prove that thesis wrong by dropping tomorrow. The Bollinger bands are contracting on most of the major stock indices so we are about to see something worthwhile one way or the other. I'm a believer in the upside but will listen if the market says otherwise. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a day of just hanging around as the Dow finished flat on lighter volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is stalling here. Not a lot of movement for the stock indices. The S&P 500 is getting to short term oversold on some of the indicators. My guess is that we'll be moving higher form here into the end of the week. One of our technical indicators will be flashing a buy signal after todays price action. I'm thinking about perhaps getting some SPY December calls but the premiums are still pretty pricey considering there are only 7 days left in the December option cycle. Yes the NASDAQ once again led things lower but it wasn't any kind of steep decline. I'm still a believer of higher prices going forward. Gold was up $17 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 2 1/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains solid for the gold shares. Buyers appear here on any decline. We do want to purchase some GDX January calls but are trying to wait for GDX to get short term oversold. That isn't happening for now. We are tempted to chase things here but for now we'll sit it out. But make no mistake that money is coming back into the precious metals complex. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today. The short term indicators here are now mid-range. So it could go either way from here. My thinking is that the VIX is going to turn back down here and that stocks will move higher. We'll see. We are still waiting for the S&P to get through the longer term down trend line that began in January at around the 4100 level. I'm guessing that the market will turn back up here and that we will get through that level before option expiration on the 16th. That's my take on things at the moment. The market will let us know in the coming sessions. Europe and Asia were both down. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another day of selling as the Dow fell 350 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The sumation index is now trying to turn lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down. We did see last hour buying though and that is an encouraging sign for the bulls. However the short term up trend line on the S&P 500 daily chart was broken to the downside. If the selling continues and the summation index begins to turn down my thesis for higher prices will be wrong. For now the longer term down trend line for the S&P remains intact. Less than 2 weeks to go for the December option cycle and I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped a bit. The XAU lost 3/4, while GDX was flat. Volume was a bit above average in the gold shares. I'm still considering the GDX January calls. Waiting on GDX to get short term oversold but that may not happen. Remaining patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up which fits with a down market. The VIX broke the short term down trend line on its daily chart. The short term technical indicators are now moving up which implies a higher VIX and lower stock prices. But things can move on a dime in this game and I'm not completely sold on an extended move lower from here. I could be wrong. We'll have to see how the rest of this week goes to get a better view of what's going on. Economic data this week has been coming in where expected. Producer prices due out on Friday. Europe was down and Asia mixed in overnight trade. We'll see if we can break the S&P 500 4 day losing streak tomorrow.

Monday sellers showed up again as the Dow fell 482 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Selling from the start today but we did see some stabalization in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and they have some distance to travel before they get oversold. I still think that we'll get through the 4100 level at some point this month. The short term up trend line for the S&P comes in at the 3960 level. Another day like today would break it but we'll have to wait and see where we go from here. Gold fell thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped around 4 1/4, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares were quite a distance from their 50 day moving averages so a move lower is to be expected. GDX also made it to some strong overhead resistance at the 30 level. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over as well. We are looking at the GDX January calls and wanting to purchase them when GDX reaches short term oversold. Perhaps this week or next. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and is back over 20. There is a down trend line for the VIX at 21 3/4. If the VIX gets through that then the decline will last longer than I expect. The longer term down trend line for the S&P at 4100 has proven to be an obstacle so far. One strong down session doesn't make a trend but it will be interesting to see where we go from here. I'm still in the bullish camp for now but we'll let the market tell us where it's going. Asia higher and Europe lower to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights trading.

The employment data came in better than expected and the market opened with a gap lower. It spent the rest of the session making back lost ground and the Dow finished with a gain of 34 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. Most of the major indices posted fractional losses today. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but I still feel that it is just a matter of time before it breaches the 4100 level and on to higher values. That is no secret anymore in my view. Before when we saw the market open with selling it would continue throughout the day. Now it is viewed as a chance for buyers to hop on board. Although the indexes are overbought they stay that way during rallies and a rally is what we're in. The down trend line at 4100 on the S&P is the last line of hope for the bears. Gold sold off early but came back to only lose $3 on the futures. The US dollar jumped on the employment numbers but then turned around and finished with a loss. Interest rates rose and then dropped. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on good volume again. GDX is stalling at the 30 level as it should. We do still like the idea of the GDX calls once it gets to short term oversold again. Not sure when that will occur as money is now pouring into the precious metal stocks. We'll look to the January option cycle here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed at 19. That doesn't exactly fit with a lower overall market. But it does fit with a market that is in rally mode. Both short and medium term oversold on the VIX. The VIX is also pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. The oversold condition won't last forever but we would only be guessing if we tried to say when it will end. Markets do what they want. Next week should provide more clarity on the current situation. A move through the S&P 4100 level on good volume is what we'll be looking for. As usual we'll be going over all the charts this weekend. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We didn't get the upside follow through that we were looking for as the Dow fell 194 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. We'll still give the bulls the benefit of the doubt though because yesterdays gains were stellar. The NASDAQ was slightly higher. Inflation data today came in a bit lighter than expected. Employment numbers out tomorrow. It is interesting that the S&P 500 stopped right at the 4100 level and turned around. It remains short term overbought and right at the long term down trend line that has been in effect since January. My thinking is that we are going to break through that line and call an end to the bear market. Only a dramatic downside slide from here would change that view. I could be wrong and often am. Gold took off on the futures and gained over $50. The US dollar dropped again along with interest rates. The XAU rose 3 2/3, while GDX gained a point. Volume was very heavy for the gold shares. GDX is at the 30 level now and deserves to take a break. This is where the long term resistance comes in. We will be looking to purchase some GDX calls on any pullback. Todays volume could be an upside blow off, which would mean that gold and the gold shares are about to take a break from the recent rise. If so it would give us a chance to get on board. If not gold will simply continue to plow on higher. Both gold and the gold shares are pretty far away from their 50 day moving averages. A move back towards there would be the logical conclusion. But it's no secret now that gold is attracting money. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed below 20 today and remains short term oversold. Medium term as well. Tomorrows VIX movement could tell us a lot about where we go from here. If it keeps moving lower, that would be bullish for stocks. But if it jumps tomorrow and stocks have a decent decline we can't rule out that the bear still lives. However I really think that the market will continue its rally from here. Europe and Asia were up last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.