Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Another day of selling as the Dow fell 350 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The sumation index is now trying to turn lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down. We did see last hour buying though and that is an encouraging sign for the bulls. However the short term up trend line on the S&P 500 daily chart was broken to the downside. If the selling continues and the summation index begins to turn down my thesis for higher prices will be wrong. For now the longer term down trend line for the S&P remains intact. Less than 2 weeks to go for the December option cycle and I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped a bit. The XAU lost 3/4, while GDX was flat. Volume was a bit above average in the gold shares. I'm still considering the GDX January calls. Waiting on GDX to get short term oversold but that may not happen. Remaining patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up which fits with a down market. The VIX broke the short term down trend line on its daily chart. The short term technical indicators are now moving up which implies a higher VIX and lower stock prices. But things can move on a dime in this game and I'm not completely sold on an extended move lower from here. I could be wrong. We'll have to see how the rest of this week goes to get a better view of what's going on. Economic data this week has been coming in where expected. Producer prices due out on Friday. Europe was down and Asia mixed in overnight trade. We'll see if we can break the S&P 500 4 day losing streak tomorrow.
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