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Friday, December 02, 2022

The employment data came in better than expected and the market opened with a gap lower. It spent the rest of the session making back lost ground and the Dow finished with a gain of 34 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. Most of the major indices posted fractional losses today. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but I still feel that it is just a matter of time before it breaches the 4100 level and on to higher values. That is no secret anymore in my view. Before when we saw the market open with selling it would continue throughout the day. Now it is viewed as a chance for buyers to hop on board. Although the indexes are overbought they stay that way during rallies and a rally is what we're in. The down trend line at 4100 on the S&P is the last line of hope for the bears. Gold sold off early but came back to only lose $3 on the futures. The US dollar jumped on the employment numbers but then turned around and finished with a loss. Interest rates rose and then dropped. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on good volume again. GDX is stalling at the 30 level as it should. We do still like the idea of the GDX calls once it gets to short term oversold again. Not sure when that will occur as money is now pouring into the precious metal stocks. We'll look to the January option cycle here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed at 19. That doesn't exactly fit with a lower overall market. But it does fit with a market that is in rally mode. Both short and medium term oversold on the VIX. The VIX is also pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. The oversold condition won't last forever but we would only be guessing if we tried to say when it will end. Markets do what they want. Next week should provide more clarity on the current situation. A move through the S&P 4100 level on good volume is what we'll be looking for. As usual we'll be going over all the charts this weekend. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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