Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 293 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. It was a one day downside reversal as stocks opened higher and closed lower. Retail sales came in better than expected. Markets are still being held hostage to whatever comes out of the Iran conflict. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still overbought but are beginning to roll over. We will see if there is any follow through selling tomorrow. Gold got whacked as the futures fell $130. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 24 1/4 and GDX shed 6 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators on GDX are moving down in a hurry. It looks like I've missed the GDX May put trade. It is frustrating but the market doesn't care about our frustrations. The put trade idea still might have some merit but we'll have to see where the rest of the week goes. However after todays price action it looks like this ship has sailed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but down from its best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are trying to move up from oversold territory. A move above the 20 level would be a cause for concern for the bulls but that hasn't happened yet. For now it seems that earnings are still taking a back seat to the daily developments out of Iran. We wonder how long this will go on and can only guess when it stops. Tougher than usual trading environment. Asia higher and Europe lower again. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

We had some minor selling to begin the week as the Dow dipped 4 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. Stocks stayed in negative territory for much of the day but it was mainly a sideways session with small losses booked for most major averages. The short term indicators are still overbought for the S&P 500. Waiting to see if the Iran cease-fire gets extended on Wednesday. Stocks remain at the mercy of the next war sound bite but it doesn't seem to have the same effect as it did earlier. I'm still in the camp of waiting for things to return to some kind of normal before making the next trade. Gold dropped $46 on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates finished a touch higher. The XAU was off 5 1/3, while GDX lost 1 1/8. Volume for GDX was pretty light. The short term indicators here are still overbought but not extremely so. I'm still considering the GDX May puts for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was higher today but remains short term oversold. It got up to the 20 level during the session but backed off. Not sure exactly what's next for the VIX but I would not be surprised if it simply remains oversold as stocks trend higher in the near term. Plenty of earnings reports out this week. Not much on the economic calendar with the exception of retail sales tomorrow. Asia higher and Europe lower to start the trading week overseas. The market is waiting on the cease-fire deadline for now.

The rally continues unabated as the Dow gained 868 points on pretty heavy volume. It was up over a thousand points during the day. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is rising. The Dow was the leader today which isn't the most bullish scenario but we'll take it. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had big gains as well to close at new all time highs. There is no overhead resistance. The extreme short term overbought condition for the S&P remains. It has been a straight line up since the start of April. Not sure when or how it ends but it has lasted much longer than we expected. We're certainly not going to try and fight it. Remaining on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now as the usual technical indicators just are not working here. Gold was up $67 on the futures. The US dollar was just a touch lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 12 1/2 and GDX added over 2 3/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. I'm still looking at the GDX May puts but am in no hurry to purchase them as we are just rolling into the May option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX is still moving lower and the market is still moving higher. That fits. The short term indicators here are still very oversold which occurs during strong rallies like the one we are currently in. This techncial condition can persist for a few weeks at times. It is another reason why we have to remain more cautious than usual with any trades for now. Stocks are having a huge bull run that can last longer than you think or end in a hurry. We'll simply wait until market conditions are better for trading in my view. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Europe was higher and Asia lower with the exception of India to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

It was pretty much a sideways affair today with most of the major averages posting small gains. The Dow rose 115 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were just about even. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs again. The short term indicators for the S&P remain extremely overbought. Expiration Friday on tap tomorrow. We remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was off about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was off about 1 2/3, while GDX dipped 1/8. Volume is still light here. The short term indicators for GDX have started to push sideways. I am now looking at the GDX May puts here. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX is still moving down and is still short term oversold. Everything here seems to say that the rally will have staying power. The market is at the tail end of the positive seasonal period. So perhaps it will continue to push up into May and then we'll have to see what happens. Headline risk has seemed to diminish recently and that is a plus for the trading. I'll remain patient for now as that appears to be the best path to take at this time. Asia and Europe were generally higher. We'll see how expiration Friday fares tomorrow.

The overall market continued higher but the Dow fell 72 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ is still leading the way higher and that's bullish. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. They are both moving up in a straight line and now there is no overhead resistance. The short term indicators here on the S&P are still extremely overbought and staying that way. I'm not sure what to say except that the rally from the beginning of the month has been extraordinary. It is quite unusual to have so many days in a row to the upside. Not sure how much longer this can go on. Gold dropped $28 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU fell 9 1/3 and GDX lost 3. Volume remains light here. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to roll over. We'll see if we get any follow through selling tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was a touch lower. It remains short term oversold. It can stay this way for an extended period of time during rallies like the one we are seeing right now. I'm remaining on the sidelines to wait for the next technical set up. It is the prudent thing to do with only two days left in the April option cycle. We've moved on after booking yesterdays loss as you always have to keep moving forward in this game. Asia was higher and Europe generally lower overnight. I'll keep watch for the tonights developments.

Another day, another gain as stock indexes continue to rise. The Dow gained 317 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The inflation data came in much lighter than expected. We had a gap higher at the open and never looked back. The NASDAQ is still leading this bull run. As long as that is the case the rally should move forward. Indices are as overbought as they can get or so it seems. When the technical indicators don't work anymore it is time to step aside. The S&P 500 posted another decent gain. The short term indicators are stuck in overbought territory. It is knocking on the door of reaching a new all time high. Stocks markets have been moving straight up for two weeks. I don't know how much longer that can continue. Gold was up almost a hundred bucks today on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 6 1/3, while GDX added 2 points. Volume remains light here. GDX like the overall market is short term overbought and staying that way. I dumped the GDX April puts that I had for a 90% loss. This trade was mismanaged by me about as bad as it gets. It did show a small profit early on but quickly moved the other way. I did not have a stop loss order on it which was another mistake. When the gold shares were acting better than gold itself I still held on to the losing position despite the signs that it was time to hit the exit. The trade should have been closed yesterday when gold came back from its early sell off overnight. There were plenty of chances to get out with a smaller loss but I didn't take them. The only minor saving grace is that I was initially going to take a bigger position and chose a smaller one. Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted. The VIX is still heading lower and remains short term oversold. Sometimes it can stay oversold for weeks and this looks like it could be one of those times. Three days left in the April option cycle and if my brain still works I'll be sitting on the sidelines. As much as I think the puts will work at some point this week, the technical signals that we are getting just are not working right now. We should have seen at least some kind of decent sell off by now if only for a day. But as always the market goes where it wants and knows much more than me. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Stocks start the week off on a positive note as the Dow gained 301 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Even the geo-political news about the war in Iran didn't phase things. However the market is extremely overbought on both a short and midium term basis at this point. It cannot stay that way forever. The NASDAQ led the way again and that's a plus. The S&P 500 had a solid gain and at this rate will be reaching new all time highs before the end of the month. The short term indicators for the S&P continue to remain overbought. Do we consider a short term trade with the SPY April puts? I'll think about it overnight. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures but came up from the lows on the session. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU dipped 2 1/8, while GDX slipped 1/2. Volume was very light. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. My GDX April put trade is on life support. Unless we see some kind of decent decline in the gold shares tomorrow this trade will be a loser. The short term up trend line for GDX was broken today. But it is probably too late to save this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX opened above the 20 level today but reversed and closed backdown to be lower on the day. Its short term indicators remain oversold. The VIX can remain oversold for some time during rallies like the one we find ourselves in right now. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and the Iran conflict remains center stage. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Just hanging around today for the most part although the Dow did drop 269 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. It was a mixed bag with the NASDAQ posting a gain and the S&P 500 having a small loss. The inflation data came in high but a touch less than expected. But the market is still being held hostage by the war in Iran. Whatever happens with the peace talks over the weekend will determine how we open on Monday. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on the daily indicators. It is overdue now for some kind of drop but in rallies it stays overbought as it has this week. We have option expiration week on tap as well. The SPY April options remain pricey with only a week to go. Gold was off $34 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates slightly higher. The XAU was up about 5 1/2 and GDX rose 7/8. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are still overbought. Gold down and the gold shares up is bullish for the gold shares. My GDX April puts are now showing a modest loss. I'm stuck holding them for now over the weekend. This trade has now turned into a cut the loss proposition depending on the open Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Despite being oversold this indicator implies higher stock prices yet to come. Still below thw 20 level which is bullish for stocks going forward. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. However the news from the peace talks will be center stage as far as where things go from here are concerned. It's anybodies guess what comes out of that. Asia was higher and Europe little changed to finish off the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 276 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Inflation data came in where expected. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent gain. Some of the short term indicators there are now overbought. The short term sell signal that we received from one of our indicators isn't working. That tells us something as well. The market is acting strongly here and any selling that we do see should be short lived. It appears that now declines can be bought. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX ended the session little changed on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought on some of its indicators. The GDX April puts that I purchased yesterday are now back at break-even. We'll see if gold reacts to tomorrows inflation data and take it from there. Not sure that I want to hold this position over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX continued lower today and closed below 20. Its short term indicators are now oversold. They can stay that way during rallies like the one we are in right now. It appears that the technical signs are pointing towards higher prices going forward. However we are still at the mercy of the next headline from the war in Iran. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

A cease-fire in the Iran conflict probpted a huge rally today as the Dow soared 1325 on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading up. There was a huge gap to the upside for most stock indices at the open and the gains were held all session long. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are almost overbought. We are getting a sell signal from one of our indicators that we rely on. Perhaps that will come to fruition before the weekend. But we are still at the mercy of the next headline. Inflation data coming out for the next two sessions. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $70 on the futures but fell from the best levels of the day. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 12 2/3, while GDX climbed over 3 1/8. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still tracking sideways with some in overbought territory. I canceled my open order for the GDX April puts overnight as markets were going wild to the upside and I didn't know where the GDX options would open. There was huge gap higher in the gold shares at the open. I placed another order for the GDX puts in the morning and it did get filled. It is showing a slight gain. The idea is to sell them before the weekend after we see the inflation data. The short term technical overbought condition on GDX hopefully works in our favor. But markets can stay overbought for a while sometimes. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a gap lower today which fits with what we saw in stocks. The short term indicators here are heading lower. The VIX broke and closed below its longer term up trend line that began at the beginning of the year. This implies that stocks will be in rally mode. It is still above the 20 level though. I'm in the next trade now and the management of it will be the key to the outcome. The markets still have above average risk right now so holding on to this position for an extended period of time may not be the best idea. Seven days to go in the April option cycle. Asia and Europe had huge gains overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Waiting around to see what's next out of Iran as the Dow fell 85 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending higher. We traded lower today until the last hour when a rally moved many stocks back to the plus side. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted slight gains. Most of the short term indicators for the S&P are still trending up. Not sure what tomorrow will bring as we are still at the mercy of headline risk. Staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $41 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat to lower. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added almost a point. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are moving sideways with some of them overbought. My open order for the GDX April puts remains out there. Could get filled if we see the gold shares move higher tomorrow. I still like the idea of this trade ahead of the inflation reports. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off from its best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are turning back up. If they succeed the market will head lower. However the markets are simply waiting to see if the United States starts bombing Iran tonight. That is what the near term trade boils down to. Europe was lower and Asia mixed in last nights trade overseas. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A positive start to the new week as the Dow rose 165 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now trending higher. The trading day had a distinct sideways feel to it as the market waits for the next headline from the war in Iran. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted modest gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are still heading up. Not sure what comes next here. Inflation data due on Thursday and Friday of this week. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates remains flat. It seems that most markets are in a wait and see approach for now. The XAU dropped 2 1/2, while GDX shed around 3/4. Volume was light which seems to be the theme for today. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to move sideways. I did place an open order for the GDX April puts and I'm leaving it out there. Ideally this order will be filled ahead of the inflation data later this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with an up market. When price action and the VIX don't match usually the VIX gets it right. The short term indicators for the VIX continue to track sideways. Today was a slow moving, not well attended day for stocks. Waiting for the next sound bite out of Iran. Europe and Asia were mixed with some exchanges closed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Volatility remains the name of the game for now as the Dow fell 61 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is in the process of trying to turn around. There was a huge gap lower for stocks at the open only to be followed by a run back up to positive territory in the next hour. Pretty much sideways after that. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had one day upside reversals. Advantage to the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P are still moving up but some are beginning to head sideways. Depending on what happens over the long weekend it's anyones guess how Monday turn out. I'm still staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold lost $111 on the futures. The US dollar was higehr and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dipped 2 1/3 and GDX lost 1 1/3 on average volume. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are still moving up while others have stalled mirroring the overall technical market action. The fact that gold itself took a big hit and the gold shares held up rather wall is a plus for the precious metal bulls. I'm still considering the GDX April puts as the next trade but will be looking at things over the weekend which may change my mind. It is a trickier than usual trading environment at the moment due to the increased volatility in most markets. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here are trending down. The VIX closed below its short term up trend line. An extra day this weekend to go over the charts and try to figure where we go from here. The market remains in headline risk mode. There's still two weeks left in the April option cycle so we will try and get something done. Asia and Europe were both lower, with India and England bucking the trend. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a rest.

Follow through upside today as the Dow gained 224 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The NASDAQ led the way again and that is positive for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a nice gain although it did drop back from the highs on the session. The short term indicators here are moving up with room to go. It does fell like we've seen the worst and stocks can find some footing here. However president Trump is giving a speech about the Iran war tonight so anything goes after that. Stocks are still at the mercy of the next sound bite. As we have seen lately it can get things going in either direction. Gold was up $116 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU gained 15 1/4, while GDX added 3 7/8. Volume was good to the upside again. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up. Not yet overbought here. We missed the gold share calls here. I am now looking at the GDX April puts as my next trade. Not in a hurry to put this trade on so I will probably let tomorrow go by and look at it next week. Unless we see another big day for the gold shares tomorrow. If GDX gets up to 100 I'll be attempting to purchase those April puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is right on its short term up trend line from the past month. The short term indicators here are still trying to move lower from the mid-range level. If the VIX can make it down through its short term up trend line it would be a plus for the bulls. However there is still the longer term up trend line to contend with at the 21 level. One thing at a time though. Only a day left in the shortened trading week and we still have the question of who will want to hold stocks over what is now going to be a long weekend? We'll see how markets react to the Trump speech and go from there. Asia and Europe climbed higher in last nights trade. I'll keep watch on the overnight developments.