Friday, April 10, 2026
Just hanging around today for the most part although the Dow did drop 269 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. It was a mixed bag with the NASDAQ posting a gain and the S&P 500 having a small loss. The inflation data came in high but a touch less than expected. But the market is still being held hostage by the war in Iran. Whatever happens with the peace talks over the weekend will determine how we open on Monday. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on the daily indicators. It is overdue now for some kind of drop but in rallies it stays overbought as it has this week. We have option expiration week on tap as well. The SPY April options remain pricey with only a week to go. Gold was off $34 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates slightly higher. The XAU was up about 5 1/2 and GDX rose 7/8. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are still overbought. Gold down and the gold shares up is bullish for the gold shares. My GDX April puts are now showing a modest loss. I'm stuck holding them for now over the weekend. This trade has now turned into a cut the loss proposition depending on the open Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Despite being oversold this indicator implies higher stock prices yet to come. Still below thw 20 level which is bullish for stocks going forward. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. However the news from the peace talks will be center stage as far as where things go from here are concerned. It's anybodies guess what comes out of that. Asia was higher and Europe little changed to finish off the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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