Wednesday, April 08, 2026
A cease-fire in the Iran conflict probpted a huge rally today as the Dow soared 1325 on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading up. There was a huge gap to the upside for most stock indices at the open and the gains were held all session long. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are almost overbought. We are getting a sell signal from one of our indicators that we rely on. Perhaps that will come to fruition before the weekend. But we are still at the mercy of the next headline. Inflation data coming out for the next two sessions. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $70 on the futures but fell from the best levels of the day. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 12 2/3, while GDX climbed over 3 1/8. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still tracking sideways with some in overbought territory. I canceled my open order for the GDX April puts overnight as markets were going wild to the upside and I didn't know where the GDX options would open. There was huge gap higher in the gold shares at the open. I placed another order for the GDX puts in the morning and it did get filled. It is showing a slight gain. The idea is to sell them before the weekend after we see the inflation data. The short term technical overbought condition on GDX hopefully works in our favor. But markets can stay overbought for a while sometimes. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a gap lower today which fits with what we saw in stocks. The short term indicators here are heading lower. The VIX broke and closed below its longer term up trend line that began at the beginning of the year. This implies that stocks will be in rally mode. It is still above the 20 level though. I'm in the next trade now and the management of it will be the key to the outcome. The markets still have above average risk right now so holding on to this position for an extended period of time may not be the best idea. Seven days to go in the April option cycle. Asia and Europe had huge gains overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment