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Friday, May 28, 2021

A day of gains for the market during the final session in the month of May. The Dow rose 64 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to gain some traction to the upside. We were higher for much of the day but the market dropped in the last ten minutes with end of the month manuvering. The S&P 500 remains overbought and on the cusp of new all time highs. Provided there's no surprises over the long weekend, my guess is that we'll reach new ground early next week when trading resumes. GE was off 1/4 on averge volume. Digesting yesterdays stellar gains. Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. Interest rates ticked lower. The XAU and GDX sported fractional gains on very light volume. My open order for the GDX June calls remains out there. Still short term overbought for GDX and I may cancel this order next week. Sideways movement for the gold shares while gold itself is rising is not exactly bullish. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed after being lower on the day. Still oversold but remaining below 20 is bullish. Perhaps there's another short term SPY put trade coming up next week but I'll have to go over the charts this weekend to be certain. If we do hit new all time highs for the S&P next week there won't be any overhead resistance. Then a put trade would not be the right idea. I guess we'll see how the month of June begins and take it from there. Europe and Asia were both higher to finish the month. We'll take a break over the long weekend and be ready for the beginning of trading on Tuesday.

Thursday, May 27, 2021

A mixed bag today as the Dow added 141 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow was the outperformer as the S&P 500 was only slightly higher and the NASDAQ had a tiny loss. Remaining short term overbought for the S&P on most of the indicators. Todays abnormally high volume might suggest that traders got their business done today to take advantage of the long weekend. If that's the case tomorrow should be pretty quiet. But we'll see. The S&P 500 is either in a stall before heading to new all time highs or forming some kind of double top. Time will tell. GE was up almost a buck on very heavy volume. Some good news on the jet engine orders was the catalyst there. The contracting Bollinger bands proved correct with the move being to the upside. Gold was up a buck and the US dollar finished little changed. Interest rates were higher today. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. I did place an open order for the GDX June calls and I'm leaving it out there. It will take a drop in GDX to get filled. At the rate things are going here, GDX isn't going to make it back to the break out point at 38. The sideways movement is either a consolidation before it moves higher or a distribution before it takes a drop. My thinking is that it's the former. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has continued lower and now is short term oversold. My guess for now would be that the rally for stocks continues from here since the VIX just recently had a strong upside move in the beginning of the month. The VIX can stay oversold for a while at times. We'll see if this is one of those times. Asia was lower and Europe mixed last night. We'll close out the trading week and month before a holiday weekend tomorrow.

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

The Dow spent another day running in place as it gained 10 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The NASDAQ was a leader and that's a plus for the bulls. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 turned back around to the upside and that's a positive as well. The S&P 500 is working its way to short term overbought but isn't there just yet. We'll get some economic data in the next couple of days but we're heading into the end of the month and a holiday weekend. I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains light. Gold was off a few bucks on the August contract and the US dollar was higher. Rates were basically unchanged. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. I'm still considering the GDX June calls. Waiting for a move back to the breakout point at 38 but that may not occur. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and is comfortably below the 20 level. Although short term oversold the VIX is implying that higher stock prices are on the way. We shall see. Perhaps new all time highs are not out of the question after all. Maybe I'll just let this week pass on by and take it from there. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Basically a day of hanging around as the Dow fell 81 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is back to a sideways trend. Yesterday I thought we would work our way up to new all time highs soon. Today, that doesn't seem to be so sure. My hope here is that things drift higher towards the end of the week and then I'll try the SPY June puts. The fact that we could not follow through on such a positive session yesterday is cause for concern. However if we storm ahead tomorrow with good gains, the picture will change again. Never any easy clues in this game. GE was off a few cents and the volume remains on the light side. Gold was up $18 on the August futures contract. The US dollar was slightly lower and rates dropped again. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Gold up and the gold shares not doing anything is a negative. Perhaps we'll get lucky and GDX will drop back to the 38 level and give us a shot at the June calls. Gold and the gold shares remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a small bounce today but remains under the 20 level. Oversold on some of the short term indicators here but not completely. As long as the VIX remains below 20 we'll have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. However the negative price action today in the TRAN and the Russell 2000 gives me cause to pause on the bullish case. Now this could just be some end of the month manuvering or it could be the canary in the coal mine. We'll simply have to see how the rest of the week shapes up. Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Monday, May 24, 2021

Moving higher post expiration as the Dow gained 186 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. It appears that the S&P 500 is now headed for new all time highs. The short term indicators there have turned back up. We did have some last hour selling but higher prices look like they are in the near future. A caveat would be the light volume as we don't trust light volume rallies. But we'll see how things go from here. GE was off a nickel on very light volume. The Bollinger bands here are getting as about as narrow as they can. That implies a big move is not far off. Gold was up half a dozen on the August contract, while the US dollar was slightly lower. Interest rates dropped as well. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. I'm still interested in the GDX June calls if we ever see a pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and is now below the 20 level and beneath its 50 day moving average. This implies that higher stock prices are on the way. Not yet completely oversold here as well, so it appears the path of least resistance is higher for equity prices going forward. Now that could all change in a hurry but I doubt it at the moment. We had a sideways sell off and now it looks like stocks are ready to advance. The SPY option premiums are pricey though as we've just moved into the June option cycle. On the sidelines there for now. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Friday, May 21, 2021

A pretty quiet and mixed expiration Friday as the Dow gained 123 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn around. Early buying today was followed by a drift lower for the rest of the session. The market is still trying to make up its mind what to do here. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain mid-range as things could go either way here. We're going into the June option cycle now and the premiums are high. I'm waiting for a decent signal one way or the other. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold was up a few bucks on the August contract and the US dollar was slightly higher. Rates were little changed. The XAU was off a point, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was pretty light. We're still waiting for GDX to pull back to the breakout point of 38. Then and there we'll decide on trying the GDX June calls. Patience for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains above the 20 level and right above its 200 day moving average. Movement in the VIX next week should tell us a lot about what the market is going to do. Not a lot of economic data due out next week and it's the end of the month. The 31st is a market holiday, so the long weekend effect will be on tap as well. It may not be the most exciting week of the year but the market can and often does surprise. I don't exactly have a good feel for what's going on right now and will try and wait for a valid signal before taking on the next trade. Plenty of charts to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were generally higher to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, May 20, 2021

Back to the upside as the rally from yesterdays low continues. The Dow rose 188 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ was the leader and that's bullish. The problem is how much of the buying is for real and how much is options expiration related. Holding the 50 day moving averge was a plus for the S&P 500. The short term technical indicators here are now mid-range. Will the market continue to roll over here or are we going back to new all time highs? I'm still cautious but another upside day tomorrow could change my mind. GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up around $7 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still waiting for a return to the breakout level of 38 on GDX to try the June calls there. There's no hurry as we'll roll into the June option cycle on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 threshold for now. I'm not getting a good feel for what this indicator is telling us at the moment. Staying above 20 does imply more volatility though. Unless we see a lot of selling tomorrow, the weekly charts for the major averages are pointing higher. Perhaps we'll see that blow off top after all. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

What looked like a market rout turned into just another day on Wall street as the Dow lost 164 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We opened with a gap lower and the Dow was off almost 600 points at the worst levels. However buyers stepped in and we made our way higher for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ outperformed once again. The Dow did bounce off its 50 day moving average. Whether or not that holds going forward will tell us a lot. The S&P 500 also bounced off of the 50 day. Not yet completely oversold for the S&P but I do think things will hold up for the rest of expiration week. It's what happens after that I'm pondering. The Fed minutes came and went today. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Gold finished flat today as interest rates were a bit higher. The US dollar was up as well. The XAU lost 3 1/3, while GDX dropped almost 2/3. Volume was pretty good as profits from the latest move were probably taken. The gold shares are due for a rest and we'll look to get some June GDX calls if they get to oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed above its 200 day moving average today and then fell all the way back below it. The short term indicators have turned back up here and if they continue higher we'll see more selling. I'm just not sure that it will take place in the rest of this week. I am still in the negative camp going forward though. The S&P 500 has had a great run since March of 2020. However on the weekly chart the angles of ascent have been broadening out as we've moved higher. As the angles are broken, a new one forms. Sooner rather than later one of the broken angles will lead to a rollover to the downside in my opinion. We could be seeing that happening right now but time will tell on that. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Lower today as the Dow fell 267 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions. Today takes care of that. It was pretty much a trendless day until the final two hours when the market started to drop. I was stopped out of my SPY May put trade in the morning for around a 30% loss. Had I not been stopped out the trade would now be showing a profit. Such is the nature of the game sometimes, especially in options expiration week. You can't afford the luxury of time. My guess is that we'll continue lower tomorrow but after that I can't say for sure. The NASDAQ was the better relative performer today and that isn't exactly bearish. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range and pointing down. That isn't exactly bullish. I'm still on the cautious side when it comes to stocks going forward. GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower. Rates were up slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Waiting for a return to the 38 level for GDX in order to try the GDX June calls. Short term overbought on the gold shares any way you look at it. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the trading loss today. Managed it properly and a small loss is better than a large one. The VIX was higher today and that fits the markets negative action. Back above the 20 level here and my guess would be some more near term volatility in store. I could be wrong. The usual positive expiration bias has not shwon up yet this week. We'll get some Fed meeting minutes tomorrow and that could be a market mover. Three days left in the may option cycle and I should stick to the sidelines. Asia was higher overnight, with the major averages in Europe little changed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Monday, May 17, 2021

It was pretty much a day of running in place as the Dow lost 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The market was lower at the open and then drifted with a positive bias for the rest of the session. My SPY May puts are still showing a small loss. There was point during the day where they sported a slight gain but I'm giving this trade another day or so. However there is a possibility that today was it for this idea. Not much in the way of data out this week. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold continues its climb and the futures gained $28. The US dollar was slightly lower and rates were basically unchanged. The XAU was up 8 2/3, while GDX soared 1 7/8. Volume was heavy to the upside and GDX broke above the long term resistance at 38. Perhaps it will continue higher into the expiration on Friday. All we can do now is wait for a pullback back to the breakout point at 38 and purchase some calls there. No doubt overbought now for the gold shares but they could just continue higher. But we'll try and be patient for now and let this trade come back to us if it does. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but finished well off of the highest point of the day. It also closed back below the 20 level which can be seen as bullish. We'll have to wait and see what happens here tomorrow. Only 4 days left in the May option cycle. If we don't see some selling tomorrow I will most likely get stopped out of the current SPY May put trade. So we'll see. I'm not feeling all that confident about turning a profit here after todays price action but you never know. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, May 14, 2021

The market powered back up today as the Dow gained 360 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to turn around. The overall market fared even better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way higher. That's bullish. The market has come back pretty far and pretty fast. I did purchase some of the SPY may puts today but I think this may be the wrong idea at this time. They are showing a small loss. I have the stop loss order already in and if the two day rally continues this trade will be stopped out. It looks like early Monday morning will decide the fate of this trade. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light. Gold added another $16 on the June futures contract. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 4 3/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was light. Perhaps I should have stuck with the GDX May call idea but the volume here isn't encouraging. GDX is also at longer term resistance at the 38 level. A break through this level with good volume will be the green light for the gold shares. GDX is currently overbought but not completely. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX was lower today closing both below its 50 day moving average and the important level of 20. Could the VIX be telling us the decline is over? Stay tuned. Such a strong snapback in stock prices over the past two days leads me to believe that perhaps we've seen all the selling for this time around. I'm not completely sold on that because the volume was nothing special today. However I cannot rule out the possibility with options expiration week on tap. The usual positive bias there would take my SPY May put trade to the losing ledger. Only a week left for the May options. I'll go over the charts this weekend and see what I can find. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, May 13, 2021

An oversold bounce today as the Dow jumped 433 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. Inflation data was a bit more than expected but the rally began at the market open. I do not think that the decline has ended but I could be wrong. That said, I am looking at the SPY May puts for a short term trade. Hopefully we'll see some more upside tomorrow to get short. As long as the summation index continues to go lower, expect price to follow. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up over ten bucks on the June futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. I'm still considering the GDX May calls but time is running out. I might have to go out to the June contract as GDX does not quite have the price movement of the SPY. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that is a definate plus for the bulls. The short term indicators here are rolling over. Normally I'd be thinking that the SPY calls would be in order but the scope of this decline in such a short amount of time has me thinking otherwise. Now we have made it down to the 50 day moving averge for the SPY and bounced. SPY is short term oversold but not completely. That leads me to believe that we'll be heading back lower before the option expiration next Friday. I could be wrong but I'm looking for a spot to try the SPY May puts between now and then. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Selling was again the name of the game today as the Dow got slammed. The most watched index lost 681 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. I did put in another order for the SPY May puts but it wasn't filled. It looks like this trade was missed although we may get a chance if there's a snapback that fails. But the opportune time for this idea has passed. Inflation data was higher than expected and that will be the excuse for todays price action. However the negative RSI divergence for the S&P is a more plausable reason. Not yet completely short term oversold for the S&P but we are almost at the 50 day moving average and we got there in a hurry. If that doesn't reign things in the next support is at 395 for the SPY and 3950 for the S&P 500. It looks like the Russell 2000 is about to break down from a head and shoulders top. The NASDAQ is short term oversold and the double top there looks ominous. I'd still advise caution for purchasing stocks at this time. GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good. Gold fell $18 on the futures as the US dollar was higher and interest rates jumped. The fundamentals for gold are turning bearish. The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX was off 3/4. Volume was average. The gold shares remain more overbought than oversold here but I still think that they could move higher in the remaining time left for the May options. If and when the overall market bounces back, the gold shares should go with it. But the risk is much higher than it was a week ago. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up again today and has cleared its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are at the point where I'd expect an exhaustion of the near term selling, perhaps as early as tomorrow. That doesn't mean that we won't go lower as we move along here, it means that the near term push to go lower should abate. It also doesn't mean that it's time to step in and buy stocks again right away. The VIX climbing above the important 20 level says that volatility has returned to the marketplace and probably won't be going away anytime soon. More inflation data due out tomorrow. Asia was generally lower and Europe slightly higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

The Dow got clobbered today as it fell 473 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to head lower. The Dow was the weakest of the major indices. No real news to use as an excuse for the decline. The market is simply feeling heavy. The negative divergences that we saw are for real and expect lower prices going forward. That doesn't mean that we won't have some buying coming in. But it does mean use those times to look at the short side. i did place an overnight order for some SPY May puts but it wasn't close to getting filled. I'm leaving it out there in hopes we get some kind of snapback rally before heading lower again. There's only 8 days left in the May option cycle but if the decline is for real, it should last for over a week at least. GE was off 1/4 on average volume. Gold was up a buck or so after being sold off hard early on. The US dollar finished little changed as rated ticked up again. The XAU gained 2 3/8, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. The gold shares had a one day reversal to the upside as they opened much lower to begin the trading day. I also placed an overnight order for some GDX May calls that wasn't filled. I had two orders that I was thinking about and unfortunately chose the wrong one to put in. The other would have been filled and already show a nice profit as the gold shares are being bought at the moment. Overbought here to be sure but the market is in a peculiar spot right now. I've since canceled the GDX call trade and will probably focus on the SPY for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up again and touched its 200 day moving average. It also closed above the important level of 20. This probably means that volatility has returned unless we see a rally from here to new all time highs. I think that the probability of that happening is low. My best guess is that we'll see the SPY decline to its 50 day moving average at around 403 between now and expiration Friday on the 21st. That's why I'm trying to get some SPY puts as the strategy right now. We've got inflation data due out the next two trading sessions. This should provide reasons or excuses for movement in the markets near term. Europe and Asia were both lower as we are seeing selling around the globe. The market always knows more than we do. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Monday, May 10, 2021

We saw numerous downside reversals today with many indices opening higher and closing lower. The Dow fell 35 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. There is a potential negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 on the daily chart. I was hoping for a blow off top for stocks but it looks like that isn't going to happen. I think that today marks a near term top. Whether or not it's a longer term top we'll only know as time goes by. I'll be looking to get some SPY May puts on any kind of move back up from here but it might already be too late. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down here and that is bearish. My guess is that the negative RSI divergence for the S&P is for real and that lower prices are what's in store going forward. We'll see. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold rose $6 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. Rates ticked up slightly. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX was off a nickel on lighter volume. I think that the rally in the gold shares is due for a pause but I am still looking at the GDX May calls if we get oversold here in a hurry. If the overall market does move lower it should take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up and that certainly fits with todays market action. It is right back to its 50 day moving average and about to cross the threshold of 20 with another day like today. The VIX was looking bullish on the close Friday but now the picture has changed. I'd advise caution when it comes to purchasing stocks at this time. Asia was mixed and Europe relatively flat last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, May 07, 2021

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 229 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. New all time highs for many of the major stock indices including the S&P 500. The jobs report came in much weaker than expected but it did not matter. The market is simply going up until it doesn't. Getting short term overbought again for the S&P but it isn't all the way there yet. If we continue higher early next week, I'll be looking at the SPY May puts. But the easy money all around doesn't make that a longer term idea. GE was up almost a dime on light volume. Gold continued its run up as the futures gained $17. The US dollar was lower but rates ticked up for some reason. The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was good. Gold has now both broken through the resistance at $1800 and the long term down trend line that had been in effect for months. Any pullback would be a spot to get long. GDX has almost reached its long term down trend line at 38. It should make it through but perhaps a pause is in order before that happens. That would be the time to try the GDX calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a good decline today and that fits the markets action to the upside. Not yet short term oversold here so there's room to go higher in the near term for stocks. Staying below the 20 level for the VIX insures that the rally has legs. The VIX is saying that whatever selling there was is over for now. I will still look at the SPY May puts though for a short term trade if we get to short term overbought next week. However I may change my mind after going over the charts this weekend if I see something else. Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days. Foreign markets were generally higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, May 06, 2021

Rallying ahead of the jobs report makes you wonder if the market knows something we don't. The Dow gained 316 points on OK volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues sideways. Even the NASDAQ was up today but not as much as the Dow. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move coming within the next two sessions. Todays price action takes care of that. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back up. The tight Bollinger bands imply a big move and after today it appears that the move will be up. Perhaps even new all time highs for this index tomorrow. The Dow is leading the way here and that is usually a late stage of the rally event. Perhaps we will see a blow off top after all. GE was flat on average volume. Gold broke above the resistance at $1800 and closed up $28 on the June futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 5 3/4, while GDX gained 1 1/8. Volume was good. It looks like I've missed the opportunity for the GDX May call trade. GDX is not completely overbought yet but the best time to try the calls has passed. I might try to chase this move if we see some pullback but I don't think that will happen. Mentally I'm feeling a bit dissappointed. Of course you're not going to catch every trade that you look at but missing out always has you wondering. They say missed money is better than lost money but it certainly doesn't make you feel any better. There's always other trades though. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here have rolled back over with plenty of room to go lower. That would support the next leg up in the current rally. That appears to be what is about to happen regardless of the employment report. But we'll have to wait and see what transpires tomorrow morning. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the first trading week in May tomorrow.

Wednesday, May 05, 2021

Another mixed session as the Dow gained 97 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Once again the NASDAQ was lower as the overall market just can't seem to get its act together one way or the other. I'm being patient with regards to the SPY as we still have the jobs report to digest on Friday. GE was up almost a dime on light volume. Gold was up about $9 on the futures and the US dollar finished basically unchanged. Rates were a bit lower. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX edged higher by 1/3. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is also figuring out which way to go. My best guess here is that the market rallies on the jobs report Friday but that's still just a guess. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are about mid-range and the Bollinger bands are contracting. Some kind of move is going to happen soon in my view. The easy money hasn't gone away so I'm sticking with the bulls for now. I think that Friday may very well tell the story. It's a matter of whether or not to take a position before then. Asia was mixed but it's still a holiday for some there. Europe was higher. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Tuesday, May 04, 2021

An interesting Tuesday as the Dow sold off early on comments from the Treasury secretary but then made it all the way back. The most watched index rose 19 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The Dow was about it as far as making it back into positive territory. The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were both lower on the session. The NASDAQ led the way down as the tech sector got sold off again. Not sure what that means but we are getting short term oversold there. However if the double top on the daily chart for the NASDAQ is for real, there will be a lot more downside to go. I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good. Gold fell $13 on the June futures as the US dollar was up. Rates dipped a bit. The XAU dropped 2 1/8, while GDX slid 1/3. Volume was light. The gold shares had an early rally but then fell off. I will say that the gold shares are acting OK here and I'm once again considering the May GDX calls. GOLD reports earnings tomorrow and I'm going to let that happen before deciding on whether or not to pursue this idea. The negative weekly candlestick pattern for GDX is also causing me some hesitation when it comes to making a call trade here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed above 20 today but did close underneath that important level. It also dropped back below the 50 day moving average. Either today was the start of something big to the downside or the selling has concluded for now according to my interpretation of this indicator. We'll know more tomorrow but that's my best guess at the moment. We had a day like this last week when some tax jibber jabber caused some selling only to be followed by new all time highs days later. We'll know more in the coming days. Europe and Asia were generally lower, with parts of Asia still on a holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Monday, May 03, 2021

The month of May begins with a gain for the Dow as it climbed 238 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending sideways. It wasn't off to the races though as the NASDAQ posted a loss for the day. We'll see if that means anything going forward. The S&P 500 closed off from the best levels of the day and remains overbought. Still dealing with earnings reports and awaiting the jobs numbers on Friday. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. Moving sideways here and waiting to see which way we go. Gold gained $24 on the June futures contract as both the US dollar and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 6 1/2, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was good. It appears that I've missed the chance for the GDX May calls after todays price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators here have turned back down and that says that perhaps a rally is getting underway. If so we'll soon be seeing new all time highs for the major stock indices and perhaps the blow off top that I'm hoping for. The Bollingers bands are starting to level out now for the VIX but they still imply some type of big move in the near future. We'll be keeping an eye on it. Asia was lower with holidays closing some of the exchanges there. Europe was higher. We'll see what tomorrow brings.