Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Lower today as the Dow fell 267 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions. Today takes care of that. It was pretty much a trendless day until the final two hours when the market started to drop. I was stopped out of my SPY May put trade in the morning for around a 30% loss. Had I not been stopped out the trade would now be showing a profit. Such is the nature of the game sometimes, especially in options expiration week. You can't afford the luxury of time. My guess is that we'll continue lower tomorrow but after that I can't say for sure. The NASDAQ was the better relative performer today and that isn't exactly bearish. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range and pointing down. That isn't exactly bullish. I'm still on the cautious side when it comes to stocks going forward. GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower. Rates were up slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Waiting for a return to the 38 level for GDX in order to try the GDX June calls. Short term overbought on the gold shares any way you look at it. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the trading loss today. Managed it properly and a small loss is better than a large one. The VIX was higher today and that fits the markets negative action. Back above the 20 level here and my guess would be some more near term volatility in store. I could be wrong. The usual positive expiration bias has not shwon up yet this week. We'll get some Fed meeting minutes tomorrow and that could be a market mover. Three days left in the may option cycle and I should stick to the sidelines. Asia was higher overnight, with the major averages in Europe little changed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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