Wednesday, May 19, 2021
What looked like a market rout turned into just another day on Wall street as the Dow lost 164 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We opened with a gap lower and the Dow was off almost 600 points at the worst levels. However buyers stepped in and we made our way higher for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ outperformed once again. The Dow did bounce off its 50 day moving average. Whether or not that holds going forward will tell us a lot. The S&P 500 also bounced off of the 50 day. Not yet completely oversold for the S&P but I do think things will hold up for the rest of expiration week. It's what happens after that I'm pondering. The Fed minutes came and went today. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Gold finished flat today as interest rates were a bit higher. The US dollar was up as well. The XAU lost 3 1/3, while GDX dropped almost 2/3. Volume was pretty good as profits from the latest move were probably taken. The gold shares are due for a rest and we'll look to get some June GDX calls if they get to oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed above its 200 day moving average today and then fell all the way back below it. The short term indicators have turned back up here and if they continue higher we'll see more selling. I'm just not sure that it will take place in the rest of this week. I am still in the negative camp going forward though. The S&P 500 has had a great run since March of 2020. However on the weekly chart the angles of ascent have been broadening out as we've moved higher. As the angles are broken, a new one forms. Sooner rather than later one of the broken angles will lead to a rollover to the downside in my opinion. We could be seeing that happening right now but time will tell on that. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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