Friday, May 14, 2021
The market powered back up today as the Dow gained 360 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to turn around. The overall market fared even better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way higher. That's bullish. The market has come back pretty far and pretty fast. I did purchase some of the SPY may puts today but I think this may be the wrong idea at this time. They are showing a small loss. I have the stop loss order already in and if the two day rally continues this trade will be stopped out. It looks like early Monday morning will decide the fate of this trade. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light. Gold added another $16 on the June futures contract. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 4 3/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was light. Perhaps I should have stuck with the GDX May call idea but the volume here isn't encouraging. GDX is also at longer term resistance at the 38 level. A break through this level with good volume will be the green light for the gold shares. GDX is currently overbought but not completely. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX was lower today closing both below its 50 day moving average and the important level of 20. Could the VIX be telling us the decline is over? Stay tuned. Such a strong snapback in stock prices over the past two days leads me to believe that perhaps we've seen all the selling for this time around. I'm not completely sold on that because the volume was nothing special today. However I cannot rule out the possibility with options expiration week on tap. The usual positive bias there would take my SPY May put trade to the losing ledger. Only a week left for the May options. I'll go over the charts this weekend and see what I can find. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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