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Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Basically a day of hanging around as the Dow fell 81 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is back to a sideways trend. Yesterday I thought we would work our way up to new all time highs soon. Today, that doesn't seem to be so sure. My hope here is that things drift higher towards the end of the week and then I'll try the SPY June puts. The fact that we could not follow through on such a positive session yesterday is cause for concern. However if we storm ahead tomorrow with good gains, the picture will change again. Never any easy clues in this game. GE was off a few cents and the volume remains on the light side. Gold was up $18 on the August futures contract. The US dollar was slightly lower and rates dropped again. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Gold up and the gold shares not doing anything is a negative. Perhaps we'll get lucky and GDX will drop back to the 38 level and give us a shot at the June calls. Gold and the gold shares remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a small bounce today but remains under the 20 level. Oversold on some of the short term indicators here but not completely. As long as the VIX remains below 20 we'll have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. However the negative price action today in the TRAN and the Russell 2000 gives me cause to pause on the bullish case. Now this could just be some end of the month manuvering or it could be the canary in the coal mine. We'll simply have to see how the rest of the week shapes up. Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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