Wednesday, May 12, 2021
Selling was again the name of the game today as the Dow got slammed. The most watched index lost 681 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. I did put in another order for the SPY May puts but it wasn't filled. It looks like this trade was missed although we may get a chance if there's a snapback that fails. But the opportune time for this idea has passed. Inflation data was higher than expected and that will be the excuse for todays price action. However the negative RSI divergence for the S&P is a more plausable reason. Not yet completely short term oversold for the S&P but we are almost at the 50 day moving average and we got there in a hurry. If that doesn't reign things in the next support is at 395 for the SPY and 3950 for the S&P 500. It looks like the Russell 2000 is about to break down from a head and shoulders top. The NASDAQ is short term oversold and the double top there looks ominous. I'd still advise caution for purchasing stocks at this time. GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good. Gold fell $18 on the futures as the US dollar was higher and interest rates jumped. The fundamentals for gold are turning bearish. The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX was off 3/4. Volume was average. The gold shares remain more overbought than oversold here but I still think that they could move higher in the remaining time left for the May options. If and when the overall market bounces back, the gold shares should go with it. But the risk is much higher than it was a week ago. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up again today and has cleared its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are at the point where I'd expect an exhaustion of the near term selling, perhaps as early as tomorrow. That doesn't mean that we won't go lower as we move along here, it means that the near term push to go lower should abate. It also doesn't mean that it's time to step in and buy stocks again right away. The VIX climbing above the important 20 level says that volatility has returned to the marketplace and probably won't be going away anytime soon. More inflation data due out tomorrow. Asia was generally lower and Europe slightly higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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