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Monday, May 10, 2021

We saw numerous downside reversals today with many indices opening higher and closing lower. The Dow fell 35 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. There is a potential negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 on the daily chart. I was hoping for a blow off top for stocks but it looks like that isn't going to happen. I think that today marks a near term top. Whether or not it's a longer term top we'll only know as time goes by. I'll be looking to get some SPY May puts on any kind of move back up from here but it might already be too late. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down here and that is bearish. My guess is that the negative RSI divergence for the S&P is for real and that lower prices are what's in store going forward. We'll see. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold rose $6 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. Rates ticked up slightly. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX was off a nickel on lighter volume. I think that the rally in the gold shares is due for a pause but I am still looking at the GDX May calls if we get oversold here in a hurry. If the overall market does move lower it should take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up and that certainly fits with todays market action. It is right back to its 50 day moving average and about to cross the threshold of 20 with another day like today. The VIX was looking bullish on the close Friday but now the picture has changed. I'd advise caution when it comes to purchasing stocks at this time. Asia was mixed and Europe relatively flat last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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