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Monday, May 17, 2021

It was pretty much a day of running in place as the Dow lost 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The market was lower at the open and then drifted with a positive bias for the rest of the session. My SPY May puts are still showing a small loss. There was point during the day where they sported a slight gain but I'm giving this trade another day or so. However there is a possibility that today was it for this idea. Not much in the way of data out this week. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold continues its climb and the futures gained $28. The US dollar was slightly lower and rates were basically unchanged. The XAU was up 8 2/3, while GDX soared 1 7/8. Volume was heavy to the upside and GDX broke above the long term resistance at 38. Perhaps it will continue higher into the expiration on Friday. All we can do now is wait for a pullback back to the breakout point at 38 and purchase some calls there. No doubt overbought now for the gold shares but they could just continue higher. But we'll try and be patient for now and let this trade come back to us if it does. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but finished well off of the highest point of the day. It also closed back below the 20 level which can be seen as bullish. We'll have to wait and see what happens here tomorrow. Only 4 days left in the May option cycle. If we don't see some selling tomorrow I will most likely get stopped out of the current SPY May put trade. So we'll see. I'm not feeling all that confident about turning a profit here after todays price action but you never know. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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