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Thursday, May 13, 2021

An oversold bounce today as the Dow jumped 433 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. Inflation data was a bit more than expected but the rally began at the market open. I do not think that the decline has ended but I could be wrong. That said, I am looking at the SPY May puts for a short term trade. Hopefully we'll see some more upside tomorrow to get short. As long as the summation index continues to go lower, expect price to follow. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up over ten bucks on the June futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. I'm still considering the GDX May calls but time is running out. I might have to go out to the June contract as GDX does not quite have the price movement of the SPY. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that is a definate plus for the bulls. The short term indicators here are rolling over. Normally I'd be thinking that the SPY calls would be in order but the scope of this decline in such a short amount of time has me thinking otherwise. Now we have made it down to the 50 day moving averge for the SPY and bounced. SPY is short term oversold but not completely. That leads me to believe that we'll be heading back lower before the option expiration next Friday. I could be wrong but I'm looking for a spot to try the SPY May puts between now and then. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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