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Tuesday, May 04, 2021

An interesting Tuesday as the Dow sold off early on comments from the Treasury secretary but then made it all the way back. The most watched index rose 19 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The Dow was about it as far as making it back into positive territory. The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were both lower on the session. The NASDAQ led the way down as the tech sector got sold off again. Not sure what that means but we are getting short term oversold there. However if the double top on the daily chart for the NASDAQ is for real, there will be a lot more downside to go. I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good. Gold fell $13 on the June futures as the US dollar was up. Rates dipped a bit. The XAU dropped 2 1/8, while GDX slid 1/3. Volume was light. The gold shares had an early rally but then fell off. I will say that the gold shares are acting OK here and I'm once again considering the May GDX calls. GOLD reports earnings tomorrow and I'm going to let that happen before deciding on whether or not to pursue this idea. The negative weekly candlestick pattern for GDX is also causing me some hesitation when it comes to making a call trade here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed above 20 today but did close underneath that important level. It also dropped back below the 50 day moving average. Either today was the start of something big to the downside or the selling has concluded for now according to my interpretation of this indicator. We'll know more tomorrow but that's my best guess at the moment. We had a day like this last week when some tax jibber jabber caused some selling only to be followed by new all time highs days later. We'll know more in the coming days. Europe and Asia were generally lower, with parts of Asia still on a holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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