Thursday, May 06, 2021
Rallying ahead of the jobs report makes you wonder if the market knows something we don't. The Dow gained 316 points on OK volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues sideways. Even the NASDAQ was up today but not as much as the Dow. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move coming within the next two sessions. Todays price action takes care of that. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back up. The tight Bollinger bands imply a big move and after today it appears that the move will be up. Perhaps even new all time highs for this index tomorrow. The Dow is leading the way here and that is usually a late stage of the rally event. Perhaps we will see a blow off top after all. GE was flat on average volume. Gold broke above the resistance at $1800 and closed up $28 on the June futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 5 3/4, while GDX gained 1 1/8. Volume was good. It looks like I've missed the opportunity for the GDX May call trade. GDX is not completely overbought yet but the best time to try the calls has passed. I might try to chase this move if we see some pullback but I don't think that will happen. Mentally I'm feeling a bit dissappointed. Of course you're not going to catch every trade that you look at but missing out always has you wondering. They say missed money is better than lost money but it certainly doesn't make you feel any better. There's always other trades though. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here have rolled back over with plenty of room to go lower. That would support the next leg up in the current rally. That appears to be what is about to happen regardless of the employment report. But we'll have to wait and see what transpires tomorrow morning. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the first trading week in May tomorrow.
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