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Thursday, May 20, 2021

Back to the upside as the rally from yesterdays low continues. The Dow rose 188 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ was the leader and that's bullish. The problem is how much of the buying is for real and how much is options expiration related. Holding the 50 day moving averge was a plus for the S&P 500. The short term technical indicators here are now mid-range. Will the market continue to roll over here or are we going back to new all time highs? I'm still cautious but another upside day tomorrow could change my mind. GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up around $7 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still waiting for a return to the breakout level of 38 on GDX to try the June calls there. There's no hurry as we'll roll into the June option cycle on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 threshold for now. I'm not getting a good feel for what this indicator is telling us at the moment. Staying above 20 does imply more volatility though. Unless we see a lot of selling tomorrow, the weekly charts for the major averages are pointing higher. Perhaps we'll see that blow off top after all. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

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