Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Lower today as the Dow dipped 25 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is now barely moving higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ losing over two hundred points. The S&P had a gap down at the open and then trended sideways. The short term indicatros for the S&P remain overbought. We've got the Fed tomorrow and no change in rates is expected. We still favor the SPY puts now with the market overbought but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold fell $84 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates rose slightly. The XAU fell 16 2/3, while GDX lost 4. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are almost completely oversold. I'm now looking at the GDX May calls as we missed the put trade here. There is a longer term up trend line for GDX that comes in at 85. That would be the spot to try the calls. If it doesn't hold the gold shares will be in trouble. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that does not fit with a down market. The short term indicators here remain oversold in a sideways trend. Not sure what's next for the VIX despite the daily chart implying lower VIX values in the near term. As usual more questions than answers in this game. I'll see how the market reacts to the Fed and take it from there. Asia and Europe were down overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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