Wednesday, December 14, 2022
We now have the Fed out of the way after another back and forth session. The Dow fell 142 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. The Fed rose rates as expected and after that the market lost its gains for the day. It wasn't a complete collapse like we've seen before this year. The S&P 500 is still below the longer term down trend line but I'm still in the camp that we get through that line soon. Maybe not by expiration Friday but before the end of the month. That's my best guess at the moment. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. The Bollinger bands here are still getting tight so we are going to see something big soon. Gold was off 5 bucks on the futures but came back up from the lows of the day. The US dollar dropped and interest rates were steady. That is not what you would expect with the Fed raising rates. Markets do what they want. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares also came back from the lows of the session. We're still waiting for GDX to get short term oversold but at this rate it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Trying to stay patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower with a down market and that doesn't fit. The short term indicators have rolled over though. I can't figure out what the VIX is doing this week. A lower VIX normally means higher stock prices. We'll see what happens in the next two days. For now it looks like the next trade will take us into the new year. Waiting on a decent set up. Sometimes it's hard to remain on the sidelines but also at times it's necessary. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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