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Thursday, December 08, 2022

Buyers had the upper hand today as the Dow added 183 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is slowly moving down. We were up from the start today but it wasn't a blockbuster session. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next 2 days. Todays price action wasn't that much but it could qualify so we'll see what happens tomorrow. Perhaps the inflation data will be a catalyst. The S&P 500 is short term oversold on some of the indicators. The Bollinger bands are also beginning to contract which implies that a big move is coming. As usual which way is the question. I still think that we're going to move higher and surpass the longer term down trend line on the S&P before option expiration. I did place an overnight order for the SPY December calls but it wasn't filled. Six days left in the December option cycle. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU along with GDX finished little changed on light volume. Still short term overbought on GDX as we try and remain patient before trading there. A weaker producer price number could get the gold shares moving higher again but we will try and stay on the sidelines here until GDX gets oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is stopping mid-range in the Bollinger bands. If the market rallies tomorrow, the VIX will turn down and the short term indicators will roll over. That is what I'm looking for. I do think that the market will be moving up here and into the option expiration. It would prove that thesis wrong by dropping tomorrow. The Bollinger bands are contracting on most of the major stock indices so we are about to see something worthwhile one way or the other. I'm a believer in the upside but will listen if the market says otherwise. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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