Monday, December 19, 2022
More selling to start the week but a last hour bump up kept it from being worse. The Dow fell 162 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. We should see a bounce in the next day or so. Not sure if it will be more than just that. There is a lot of bearishness around though. The smaller stock indexes look like they're going to test their October lows. If that occurs it won't bode well for the overall market. Oversold and remaining there would be trouble going forward. We'll have to see how it plays out. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat and interest rates rose. The XAU was off almost 2 points, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. GDX is almost short term overbought and I'm thinking about putting in an overnight order for the January calls there. However if the overall market continues to sink, GDX will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with a down market. Again this indicator isn't acting in the usual fashion. Not sure what to make of it. The short term indicators remain at mid-range. Still could go either way here. The weekly indicators for the major averages still have plenty of room to move lower. That's why it's possible that things could get dicey here. Add in the summation index heading lower and you see the situation that we're in. Unless we see some kind of turnaround soon the markets will be heading lower going into the end of the year. If we continue to move closer to the zero line and through it on the summation index, the previous lows for the major indexes won't hold. That is what we are facing at the moment. Europe was up and Asia generally down to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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