Tuesday, December 20, 2022
Another day of indecision as the Dow bounced around for much of the session. The most watched index gained 92 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving down. The Dow was the outperformer today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and I'm still waiting for some kind of bounce this week. However as long as the summation index is moving lower, the path of least resistance is down. Many participants are already gone for the holidays so things can get skewed one way or the other. We'll probably wait until next year for the next SPY trade unless we really see a good signal. Gold took off to the upside today as the futures gained thirty bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU jumped 5 points, while GDX was up over a buck. Volume was average. I did place an overnight order for the GDX January calls but it wasn't filled. The Japanese yen climbed overnight and the price of gold sometimes follows the path of the yen. It did today. GDX was short term oversold yesterday but has moved away from there fast. Buying has come into the gold shares for the past month and a half. It looks like we missed this chance to buy the GDX calls again but we'll see. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated as we seem to have missed the trade we were waiting for. Not sure why the market is having such an appetite for gold but that's what it looks like. The Bollinger bands on the GDX daily chart are starting to contract which implies a big move coming there. Seems like it will be to the upside based on the recent price action. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators are still mid-range. So the VIX could go either way from here. Not getting a good idea of what it will do here but it does remain above the 20 level. Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade. I'll be looking for some kind of bounce tomorrow.
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