Thursday, December 15, 2022
The market has spoken. Stocks got clobbered today. The Dow fell 764 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving back down. Equities had made it back to the longer term down trend line on the S&P 500 only to be repelled. The bears took control where they had to. My idea of breaking through that line and on to higher prices has been proven wrong. It appears that lower prices are in the near future for stocks. When the market speaks we have to listen even if it's not what we want to hear. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back down. Not completely oversold yet so there is room to move lower. The tight Bollinger bands prediction of a big move is to the downside. The positive expiration week bias is not happening this time around. I guess the first downside target would be the 50 day moving average at 3860. Gold slumped as well with the futures off over $30. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU lost 5 1/8, while GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down. Now it is just a matter of GDX getting to short term oversold, which is what we've been waiting for. I'm not sure how long that will take and even if it is the right idea anymore. At this point we'll let option expiration pass tomorrow and go from there. If the US dollar starts to rally from here it would be a major headwind for gold. The dollar has been oversold for quite a while and is now coming off of that condition. It's something to keep an eye on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits the market decline. The short term indicators here are mid-range which would mean we could still have plenty of downside to go if the VIX continues to rise. At this point I'm not sure what to think when it comes to the VIX. It hasn't been acting in the usual fashion. It has been quite a trading week already but we still have one day left. The rally has ended and we'll have to see how low we go. Europe and Asia were down as well. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.
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