Friday, December 30, 2022
I suppose it was only fitting to close out 2022 on a down note as the Dow fell 73 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to congest. A last hour rally saved the day from being worse as the Dow was down over 350 at one point. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold on most of its indicators. To me is appears that we have put in a base here on the S&P and I am looking for higher prices to begin the new year. We are seeing extreme readings in our call/put ratio which usually leads to some kind of rally. Also the fact that the NASDAQ hasn't broken down here after hitting a new yearly low is a plus. I did consider getting some SPY January calls today but did not. The light volume this week still makes any moves suspect. But I do think we move up from here. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. The gold shares have been underperforming the metal itself lately. But just like the overall stcok market it is hard to put much credibility in the moves this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly and I still don't know what to make of the action here. The Bollinger bands here are slowly starting to converge so we'll be seeing something meaningful here soon. I just don't know which way it's going to go. Today puts a close to the 2022 trading year. My win percentage was pretty low. However a couple of late huge winning trades turned it into a profitable year. We will try and build on that momentum heading into 2023. Asia was generally higher and Europe down to close out the week. It's another holiday weekend so we'll have an extra day to check the charts and prepare for the start of trading in 2023. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Happy New Year everyone.
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