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Tuesday, January 03, 2023

A volatile session to begin the new year as the Dow lost 10 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is starting to congest. We had a huge gap up at the open with the Dow almost reaching a 250 point gain. The market then proceded to lose all that and then some with the Dow almost reaching a 300 point loss. It finished about in the middle of todays range. The market is trying to make up its mind here. I'm still looking for higher prices in the near term but we'll see what the market has to say about that. The NASDAQ was once again the underperformer. There is plenty of bearishness around and that usually leads things to go the other way. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and has been that way for too long in my view. The Bollinger bands here are starting to move closer so we should see some kind of decent move out of this 2 week congestion zone. My guess is that it will be to the upside. I did take a look again at the SPY January calls but didn't have the guts to buy them. We'll consider this idea again tonight. Gold rallied to begin the year with the futures up $18. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell. It looks like today had a flight to safety theme to it. The XAU climbed 3 1/3, while GDX was up a point. Volume was good. The 30 level once again held for the upside in GDX. I suppose if GDX gets through there on good volume we'll just have to jump on board. Hasn't happened yet but we will keep an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK although I do have some indecision as to what is going on here. The VIX was up today and that fits the overall market. The short term indicators here have turned up as well. The Bollinger bands are starting to contract here. Not sure what to expect next with the VIX but that isn't a surprise. Not much of a Santa Claus rally so far and there is only one day left for that. I remain on the sidelines for now but we'll take another look at the SPY calls tonight. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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