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Friday, January 20, 2023

Back up today to close out the week as the Dow gained 330 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ led the way again and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 is once again poised to take on the long term down trend line that has defined the bear market. Next week will probably tell the story on that. We still think that line will be broken to the upside and that the bear will be declared dead. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up. With the summation index rising, the path of least resistance is up. We'll know more next week as todays rise could also be just a result of the option expiration. However we don't think that's the case. Gold rose $5 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates were up again. The XAU was up over two points, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was about average. Still short term overbought on the gold shares but not extremely so. Still waiting for some kind of pullback here but it just isn't happening. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed back below the 20 level. The daily candlestick chart there implies lower VIX readings and higher stock prices. It is another reason why we think that the S&P will finally make it past the down trend line that began last January. The weekly S&P 500 candlestick chart also has a constructive look to it with bottoms above bottoms though still below the 50 week moving average. So next week will be key in my opinion to where we're going and we think it's higher. Europe and Asia were up on Friday to end the week. We'll check the charts as usual over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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