Tuesday, January 10, 2023
Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 186 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a good day for the bulls as the daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 looks much better. The NASDAQ once again led the way and that's a plus. Getting short term overbought on the S&P but not all the way there yet. Resistance still comes in at the 4000 level and that would be the spot to try the SPY puts if you're so inclined. I'm starting to think that we will just keep moving higher. But we'll see what happens when and if we get there. The market is waiting on the inflation data due out on Thursday. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX added over 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still disappointed in not owning the GDX calls here but what can you do? I cannot purchase them with GDX already in the short term overbought condition because it just doesn't make technical sense. Sometimes being patient is one of the hardest things to do. We will have to simply watch and wait here. Mentally I'm doing OK but I would like to make a trade in the January option cycle. Perhaps a position ahead of the inflation data? It would have to be put on tomorrow. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are pointing down. Not yet oversold here and the VIX now does look like it is implying higher stock prices in the near term. The coil formation has broken out to the downside as the VIX gets closer to the 20 level. I'll be the first to admit that I haven't been able to figure out this indicator for a while now. We'll see where it goes from here. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. Should just be a waiting game tomorrow but with the stock market you never know.
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