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Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Stocks continues to move higher as the Dow gained 268 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to move up. I thought it would be a day of waiting on tomorrows inflation report but the market had other ideas. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way up. At this rate it seems as though the market will simply stay in rally mode regardless of where the inflation numbers come out on Thursday. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and also on the cusp of breaking through the long term down trend line that has defined the bear market. Weak inflation numbers tomorrow will probably get the S&P above that line. If that's the case we'll see quite a move up tomorrow. However the line is still in effect until it is broken on good volume. It should be an interesting market day. Gold was up about five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat and interest rates dropped. The longer term chart of the dollar shows it on its long term uptrend line that began in 2021. It too is in a defining position of where it goes from here. Something to keep an eye on because it will have implications for gold. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Remaining short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that doesn't fit with an up day for stocks. The Bollinger bands are getting even tighter here on the daily chart. So we can expect some type of big move from the VIX in the near future. Which way is the question. The VIX remains above the 20 level but below its 50 day moving average. Perhaps tomorrow will bring an outsized VIX move. Just a guess on my part. I did think about getting some SPY January puts today but with the summation index in such a bullish position I stayed on the sidelines. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the CPI tomorrow.

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