Friday, January 06, 2023
The Dow exploded to the upside as it gained 700 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. We'll expect to see higher prices from here. The jobs report came in where expected and buyers soon took over. Some short covering in there as well to be sure as there are plenty of bears still around. The NASDAQ led the way today but not by much. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have taken off to the upside with room to run. I suppose that our orignal premise of a base being formed on the S&P was correct. I still didn't have the guts to try the SPY January calls. If we do get some pullback we might try that idea yet. The first line of resistance for the S&P is the 50 day moving average and we are already there. Next comes the long term down trend line that started a year ago which now lies at 4000. That will be the key test. Get through that and we'll declare the bear market done. Gold rallied as the futures gained over thirty bucks. The US dollar had a big drop along with interest rates. The market seems to believe that the rate rise is over. The XAU added 3 1/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume continues to be good on the rise. We missed the GDX January call trade. GDX remains short term overbought which occurs during rallies. I still can't buy the calls here with the overbought condition but perhaps I'll change my mind. Price and volume continue to move in the right direction for the bulls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators have turned back down. This implies a lower VIX and higher stock prices. Perhaps the VIX can get below the 20 level and stay there. If that happens the down trend line in the S&P 500 will be broken to the upside. We will see how this all plays out. The economic data out today certainly didn't warrant the kind of rally that we saw but the market always knows more than we do. The summation index is moving back up and we'll take our cues from there. Look for higher prices going forward. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the first week of the new year. We'll go over the charts and data this weekend to try and come up with a game plan for the next two weeks in the January option cycle. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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