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Friday, January 13, 2023

A one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. It gained 112 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 is now right on the down trend line that began last January that defines the current bear market. This would be the spot to try the SPY January puts with only 4 days to go in this months option cycle. But I wouldn't advise it as the market is in rally mode and will probably close above the line by the end of next week. You could maybe try the puts in a very short term time frame when the market opens on Tuesday but you would have to be very nimble. I don't think it's worth the risk but we will look at it over the weekend. The S&P remains short term overbought. The light volume must be overcome to make the break of the down trend line valid. We expect the market to hesitiate here but it may not develop into a trade worthy decline. Gold was up $25 on the futures and climbed above the $1900 level. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU gained over 1 1/2, while GDX was up about 1/2. Volume was average. The gold shares are short term overbought and staying that way. Perhaps they will contiue to run up until next Fridays expiration. If we get a move back to the break out at the 30 level maybe we could try the GDX calls there. However the reality is that we missed this move higher in GDX for the January option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues lower and has closed the week solidly below the 20 level. This supports the overall bullish scenario for the stock market. Although short term oversold it can remain that way for weeks during rallies. The low VIX is another reason to be careful when attempting any trades from the short side going forward. It really appears that the bears have lost control and we'll see higher stock prices going forward. We'll check the charts over the weekend as usual. It is a holiday weekend as well so trading won't begin again in the US until Tuesday. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week with the exception of Japan. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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