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Wednesday, January 04, 2023

The second day of the new year continued with indecision as the Dow gained 133 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is attempting to turn back up. We were in positive territory for much of the session but moved back and forth from good gains to just smaller ones. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold despite moving up. I'm still a believer in higher prices moving forward. However the lack of a strong move to the upside in the beginning of the year is concerning. Perhaps the jobs report on Friday can get things going. Gold rallied as the futures tacked on another $12. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 5 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside and GDX broke through resistance at the 30 level. The gold shares outperformed gold itself and that's a plus. It appears that I've missed this trade as GDX is now pretty short term overbought on some of the short term technical indicators. If we do see a near term pullback I'd be willing to try the January calls here. However a more likely scenario is for the gold shares to just plow on higher. Money continues to find its way into this area. Not sure why but we'll stick to the technicals. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators are mid-range and the Bollinger bands are contracting. Still above the 20 level on the VIX but that could change if we see a rally in stocks. Not exactly sure what is next for the VIX as I haven't been able to figure this indicator out for a while lately. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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