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Thursday, January 26, 2023

Grinding our way higher as the Dow gained 205 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ again led the way up. The S&P 500 has broken out from the long term declining tops line although the volume has been weak. You can't argue with price though. The S&P remains short term overbought and staying that way. The 50 day moving average has gotten above the 200 day. I think the only thing that could derail the near term positive outlook would be a negative surprise in tomorrows inflation data. But we aren't looking for that and remain in favor of higher stock prices going forward. Gold took a breather and was off a dozen. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was down 2 1/4, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. There is a potential negative divergence for GDX on the daily RSI indicator. Potential being the key term there as things could change here tomorrow. But it is something to keep an eye on because the gold shares have been pretty strong for quite a while. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower in todays session and that fits an up market. The daily chart still looks like it has room to go down and the lower Bollinger band has a downward slope. Not yet completely oversold here on the daily indicators. The VIX implies higher stock prices to come. Asia was mixed with China still closed. The European markets were up. We'll finish out the trading week tomorrow.

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