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Monday, January 09, 2023

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow fell 113 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. Tha NASDAQ managed a gain today but we didn't see the good upside follow through to Fridays gains that we were expecting. Markets were higher early on but couldn't hold on to the advance. I still think that we are going higher from here in the near term as the summation index suggests. But if we have a negative session tomorrow I'd be willing to change my mind. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are stalling and could roll over with a negative session on Tuesday. The daily candlestick chart there would also look ominous with a down day tomorrow. Hasn't happened yet but it's worth keeping an eye on. A failure to move up from here would make Fridays price action just another rally out of nowhere in a bear market. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. Still short term overbought for GDX. The gold shares underperformed the metal itself for a change today. I've decided not to chase the GDX calls and will wait for an oversold condition before trying them there. At least that's the current thought process. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and was that way even during the morning rally. The daily chart here looks like a triangle or coil pattern, with the reading ready to break out one way or the other. The short term indicators are close to mid-range. After checking the charts over the weekend we could not come up with any definite ideas worth taking a risk on. There is time in the January option cycle to make something happen but we cannot trade just for the sake of trading. Trying to remain patient and looking for a decent signal. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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