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Thursday, January 19, 2023

Some downside follow through to yesterdays debacle as the Dow dropped 252 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower but it doesn't have the feel as though we're falling apart here. The S&P 500 did close below its 50 day moving average but remains above the up trend line at 3850. I'm not exactly sure what to make of this weeks price action but I do not believe that we're on the precipice of a huge decline. I could be wrong. 3850 on the S&P 500 will be important to watch in my view. Gold rallied and futures gained over $25. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU was up almost 2 1/2, while GDX gained over 3/4. Volume was good to the upside. Gold and the gold shares continue to rally despite the overbought condition. This was a move that I should have just jumped aboard at the end of last year. I'm inclined to hop on now but the prudent thing to do would be to wait for the gold shares to get oversold. But at this rate that isn't going to happen anytime soon. Money continues to flow into this sector for whatever reason. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed just a bit higher after being up more early on. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it now wants to head back down which would be bullish for stocks. The short term indicators are mid-range. The VIX remains below its 50 day moving average. We'll be rolling into the February option cycle next week and I don't have any urgent trades in mind. Missed opportunities to start the new year and that's always frustrating. But the market doesn't care and you've got to keep moving on in this game. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines and see how the week finishes tomorrow.

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