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Monday, December 05, 2022

Monday sellers showed up again as the Dow fell 482 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Selling from the start today but we did see some stabalization in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and they have some distance to travel before they get oversold. I still think that we'll get through the 4100 level at some point this month. The short term up trend line for the S&P comes in at the 3960 level. Another day like today would break it but we'll have to wait and see where we go from here. Gold fell thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped around 4 1/4, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares were quite a distance from their 50 day moving averages so a move lower is to be expected. GDX also made it to some strong overhead resistance at the 30 level. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over as well. We are looking at the GDX January calls and wanting to purchase them when GDX reaches short term oversold. Perhaps this week or next. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and is back over 20. There is a down trend line for the VIX at 21 3/4. If the VIX gets through that then the decline will last longer than I expect. The longer term down trend line for the S&P at 4100 has proven to be an obstacle so far. One strong down session doesn't make a trend but it will be interesting to see where we go from here. I'm still in the bullish camp for now but we'll let the market tell us where it's going. Asia higher and Europe lower to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights trading.

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