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Friday, March 25, 2022

We closed the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 153 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. It was a back and forth session with the market trying to make up its mind. We are are the cusp of the final resistance of 4550 for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought. I did place an open order overnight for the SPY April puts but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there but may have to adjust it on Monday morning. It was another positive week for stocks and that may spell doom for trying the puts here. However the volume wasn't all that great today and perhaps we're running out of steam. The NASDAQ was lower. I'll reconsider things over the weekend. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates continued their climb. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume. I still like the calls here and might try them ahead of some inflation data that is due out this Thursday. More overbought than oversold for GDX but not extremely so. The drawback is the anemic volume today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is almost at the important 20 level. Another day like today on Monday will get it there. Short term oversold and has been for a few days. Just shy of its 200 day moving average. Technically things have set up and are pointing to buying some SPY April puts now. Unless Monday turns into a huge rally to the upside on good volume, the market should at least stall here at the final Fibanocci retracement of the decline. There's also the possibility that the decline resumes from here as well. Or the rally will continue and we've seen the lows for a while. So Monday will be a key and we'll be paying attention. Plenty of work to do over the weekend while going over the charts. Perhaps we'll find something there that will change our prognosis. Asia was lower and Europe higher to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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