Tuesday, March 22, 2022
Back to the upside as the Dow gained 254 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Short term overbought for the major stcok indices and staying that way. The line in the sand for this rally on the S&P 500 is the 4550 level. If we make it past there then my idea that we will be seeing lower prices as the year progresses will be out the window. 4550 is the final Fibanocci retracement level from the recent decline. Make it through that level and there is no ceiling on the rally. This weeks price action is important and right now it's saying that we're going higher. Gold was down $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed after being higher early on. Interest rates continue to climb and some of the bond sell off money is heading into stocks. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light here for a change. Still mid-range on the short term technical indicators for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lwoer and that fits with a gain for stocks today. Short term oversold for the VIX and getting closer to the 20 level. If we get down to 20 I'd like to try the SPY April puts. We'll see. It's been quite a rally in the past 6 days however the small stocks have not even made it back to their 200 day moving averages. I still think some kind of pause is due or perhaps a trip back to the down trend lines that were broken. Those kind of things would make sense but the market as always goes where it wants. Asia and Europe had gains in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye out for the ongoing headlines.
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