Wednesday, March 16, 2022
Two days in a row to the upside as the Dow climbed 518 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up but still stuck in a sideways channel. The Fed raised rates but it was already a known fact so it did not rile the markets. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. It looks like the next stop is the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of January. The S&P is also below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. We'll see if things can break through to end the recent decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher again and that's a plus. I get the feeling that we're going to break the recent down trend lines for the major stock indices but we will have to wait and see. I could change my mind once we get there depending on the technicals. Gold was about flat after dropping early on the futures. The US dollar was lower despite the Fed. Interest rates creeped up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other after dropping lower during the session. I was stopped out of my GDX March call trade for a 50% loss. After getting stopped out GDX turned around and those same calls are right back to what I paid for them. That is the problem with stops. It does save losses from getting bigger when things continue to go against the trade. But it also doesn't always let the trade work the way you thought it would at times. I still like the gold share calls and will try them again in the April option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. 2 losing trades this week although not a lot of money was involved. But it does drain your confidence. The VIX was lower and has reached its 50 day moving average. Getting short term oversold as well. This indicator is perhaps saying that the rally here won't be one that lasts. I'm not so sure. I'll let the rest of the week play itself out and take it from there. The market is still at the mercy of external factors. Europe and Asia had big gains overnight as money is moving back into stocks. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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