Thursday, July 11, 2024
The much anticipated inflation data came in lower than expected however after a brief rally the major indexes sold off. The Dow did manage a gain of 47 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 dropped, with the NASDAQ off almost 2%. Big tech saw some selling. The short term indicators on the S&P have now turned down but are still short term overbought. I did not try the SPY puts today although the thought did cross my mind. We knew an opportunity was coming but could not get the timing down right. I don't think that this is the beginning of a straight drop lower but I could be wrong. I'm guessing things will hold together into option expiration next week. Things are mixed here with the Russell 2000 having a stellar day. The TRAN woke up as well. Gold continued to rise with the futures up forty bucks. Both the US dollar and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 3 7/8, while GDX gained a point. Volume was good moving through the longer term down trend line on GDX and that is bullish. Although overbought I still like the GDX calls going forward. We will be looking to purchase them on any pullback. The technical picture for the gold shares is positive. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated having missed out on the GDX calls and not attempting the SPY puts this morning. But at least we know the overall ideas have merit. Timing, as always, is key. The VIX finished little changed on the day after reaching its upper Bollinger band. The short term techncial indicators here are now mid-range. Could go either way. More inflation data on tap for tomorrow. I'll most likely remain on the sidelines for now. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week on Friday.
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