Monday, July 12, 2021
New all time highs all around as the Dow gained 128 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around again. Short term overbought, staying that way and no overhead resistance. Like a broken record. Option expiration week is upon us and I still believe that things will run up into Friday. I could be wrong. I'm already looking at the SPY August puts. I'd like to see a top that takes a little time to build but a blow off to the upside is possible as well. The market will not remain overbought forever. GE was off a nickel on average volume. Gold dropped a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell two points, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed and the short term indicators have stalled. It looks like the VIX could go either way here. Inflation data due out in the next couple of days followed by the Fed chief in Washington to speak before Congress on Thursday and Friday. So there are potential market moving episodes to come. I won't be trying any of the short term July option trades this week if I can help it. Europe and Asia were higher as the money flow into stocks continues around the world. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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