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Friday, July 02, 2021

Higher and higher we climb as the Dow gained 152 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now tracking sideways. The jobs numbers were better than expected but not enough for anyone to fear the Fed. My SPY July puts were losers from the open, which saw a gap higher. I took the over 30% loss and moved on. This was a trade that would be determined by the market reaction to the employment report. We are extremely overbought on a number of indicators that I follow but the market does not seem to care. The market is in full summer rally mode and I would expect this to last into the July option expiration in a couple of weeks. That doesn't mean that I won't maybe try the puts again next week for a short term trade because the overbought technical conditions cannot persist forever. The light volume on the way up can be discounted as a summer trait but that doesn't mean that there isn't cause for concern. The S&P 500 closed at another record high and finished above the upper Bollinger band. That conditon will not last. GE was off 1/8 on very light volume. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. Both interest rates and the US dollar were lower despite a better than expected jobs number. The XAU was up over 2 points, while GDX gained almost 1/2. Volume was light. Still just tepid interest in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again, remains oversold and that story hasn't changed. As long as the VIX remains below 20, the trend will be up. However I would be careful chasing things here because this market is getting out of hand in my humble opinion. Why not just buy the calls you might ask? Buying calls with the extreme overbought condition we now face is not usually a recipe for success. The market price action has all the signs of a blow off top and you do not want to be the last one to be buying. These kind of things never end well. Just look at a daily futures chart for lumber over the last six months and you'll see what I mean. For now, we'll enjoy the ride higher in stocks. Europe and Asia were generally higher to close out the week. A long weekend on tap but there's plenty of work to be done to come up with a game plan for next week. Despite todays losing trade, I'll be searching the charts for the next idea. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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