Tuesday, July 20, 2021
We got a bounce and then some as the Dow gained 550 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. The McClellan oscillator was at an extreme yesterday and a bounce was due. Is it possible that the decline is over? Yes but I doubt it. The S&P 500 did bounce off of its 50 day moving average again. That has been the case since this rally began nine months ago. So it is possible that the market keeps on chugging forward. My thinking is that we'll build more of a top here hopefully. That would give me some time to purchase the SPY August puts at a better price. The short term techncial indicators for the S&P have turned or are starting to turn around. A weak volume move higher from here would be the ideal scenario. There is so much time in the August options that you don't have to be in a hurry to do anything. GE bounced back almost 3/4 on good volume. Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher. Interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Still no interest in owning the gold shares. NEM reports earnings on Thursday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and made it back down below the 20 level today. Maybe it stays below 20 and maybe the market goes higher from here. However we can't trade on maybes. I think that we will have to see what happens when the McClellan oscillator makes it back up to the zero line. If it goes through that line and turns the summation index back up, then I'd say the decline is done for now. But if it gets back to the zero line and stalls that will be the time to purchase those SPY August puts. That's my thinking at the moment. Subject to change as we move along in time and the market reveals where it is going. It looks like no summer doldrums this year. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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