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Thursday, July 15, 2021

The market continues to send mixed signals as the Dow rose 53 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Overall stocks lost ground today with the NASDAQ leading the way down. The market is trying to figure out what to do here. The least case scenario in my mind would be for some type of sustained rally from here but who knows? The S&P 500 remains overbought but the short term technical indicators have now rolled over. The summation index has been heading lower for a while now but we haven't really seen any drop in price. Not sure exactly what that implies. I'm still looking at the SPY August puts. GE was off a nickel on light volume. Gold was up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continued to decline. The XAU was up a point and GDX up 1/4. Volume was pretty light. The Bollinger bands for GDX are contracting to the point that a major move for this index is in the offing. As usual the question of which way is the issue. I am starting to take a closer look here though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a gain in the Dow but that does fit the overall market decline. Still around mid-range for the indicators here so it could go either way. We haven't seen the usual positive market bias that is usually associated with option expiration week this time around. We will also be rolling into the August option cycle on Monday that has an extra week in it. Premiums there remain elevated. Patience for now. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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