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Friday, July 16, 2021

Sellers took over on Friday as the Dow fell 300 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now moved lower and it is not overbought anymore. I do think that this is the beginning of some type of down trend. How long and how far is the question. I'm hoping for some kind of move back up in order to purchase some SPY August puts. But it could already be too late. We will have to see how things go next week. GE was off almost 1/4 but the volume was light. Gold fell about twenty bucks as both rates and the US dollar were slightly higher. The XAU dropped almost 5 points, while GDX shed over a point. Volume picked up to the downside. After todays price action it appears the move coming due to the contracting Bollinger bands for GDX will be to the downside. But we will wait and see if there is any follow through next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are now pointing up and that implies lower stock prices unless we see a turnaround on Monday. So it appears that we are a potentially inportant inflection point for the market at this time. I do think that we will head lower. I just don't know how far and how fast. I also could be wrong and that stocks take off to the upside from here on the coming earnings reports. But I really don't think that will be the case. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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