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Monday, July 26, 2021

Drifting higher as the Dow gained 83 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down but is trying to turn around again. Still hugging the upper Bollinger band for the daily S&P 500 chart. Short term overbought here. My plan for now is to wait until the GDP report on Thursday to attempt to get some SPY puts. That will get the Fed out of the way on Wednesday. We also have big tech earnings reports due out tomorrow. My hope is that the rise continues and last piece of news will be a robust GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The market rarely cooperates. New all time highs all around today for the majoe stock indices. GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume. Gold fell four bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower while interest rates were little changed. The XAU gained 2 1/2 and GDX was up over 1/3. Volume was light. Once again the gold shares outperformed gold itself and that is bullish. I am still considering the GDX September calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX was up today and closed on its 50 day moving averge. That doesn't fit with an up market. Short term oversold for the VIX here but not completely yet. Not sure how to read this indicator at the moment. Plenty of market moving potential this week with the Fed and economic data. We've also got the end of the month on tap. Plenty of time to go in the August option cycle. Europe and Asia were mixed overngiht. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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