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Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Got a snap back today as the Dow rose 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  No real trade news today as the market tries to regain its footing.  Oversold here on a short term basis to be sure.  The question is whether we see just a bounce from here or is this the bottom of a roughly 5% pull back in the S&P 500.  I'm not exactly sure what to make of things here as we are still at the mercy of the next US/China headline.  But if I had to guess, I'd say that the worst is over for now.  Perhaps some sideways consolidation before the next move is what you should be looking for.  GE was up almost 1/2 on average volume.  gold gave back some of yesterdays gains and dropped around five bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The 200 day moving averages have held things for the most part here with the exception of RUT.  It's something to keep an eye on.  Most of the indices today fell back from their highs for the session.  So there are still people looking to sell.  When we see some strength into the close, that will be a clue that the sellers a diminishing.  The VIX looks like it has put in a top here to me.  A close back below its 200 day moving average would be another positive clue.  Those are things to look for and they haven't happened yet.  A renewed decline from here that takes out the 200 day moving averages for the major indices would be a red flag.  But we're at the risk of the next headline and that's tough thing to try and trade.  I'm on the sidelines for now.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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