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Friday, May 31, 2019

Well, so much for my short term bounce thesis.  The Dow sank another 354 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Tariffs on Mexico now a possibility as the headline risk environment persists.  Oversold and staying that way as the bounce that I thought was due did not happen.  The measuring objective on the head and shoulders top for the S&P 500 is 2650.  We're 100 S&P points from there.  RUT has led the way lower and there isn't any support on that chart that I can see.  I suppose we'll just continue to get even more oversold.  Kicking myself for not owning the puts but the option premiums were very high with the extra week in the June cycle.  There will be other opportunities.  GE was off a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained $17.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX was up over 3/4.  Volume exploded on the upside.  There was a gap higher at the open for the gold shares and volume confirmed the move up.  I decided to try and chase it and bought some GDX June calls.  My order did get filled and they closed where I purchased them.  Three weeks to go in the June option cycle and this isn't my normal trading strategy.  However with the price move higher combined with the volume, I think this trade has a chance to be a winner.  Gold itself broke out above $1300 and its near term declining tops line.  A run to $1350 in the next three weeks is not out of the question.  Silver however did not follow and that could be an issue going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks to me like head and shoulders tops have been activated and there's more room to move lower for the major stock indexes.  2650 is the measuring objective for the S&P 500 in my view.  So we'll see.  I'm chasing the GDX call trade, following price and volume.  We'll see if there's any follow through higher on Monday morning.  There will be plenty of charts to go over this weekend as it is clear that the market may be on the verge of an actual breakdown.  I may be early in calling for that but if the summation index keeps falling it will approach the zero line.  If it breaks through the zero line, the market will fall apart.  We aren't there yet and I'm not sure that will be the outcome here.  But it is something to keep an eye on.  Europe and Asia were both lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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